From 76bce6db9760f994ecf2b96b3dd8a4e058ea5fcc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: 39d21c16890607c0a143e30af5a96cea <39d21c16890607c0a143e30af5a96cea@app-learninglab.inria.fr> Date: Wed, 13 May 2020 13:44:13 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Solve exercise 02_05 --- module2/exo5/exo5_en.ipynb | 182 +++++++++++++++++++++---------------- 1 file changed, 106 insertions(+), 76 deletions(-) diff --git a/module2/exo5/exo5_en.ipynb b/module2/exo5/exo5_en.ipynb index 6a0919d..bfa95d7 100644 --- a/module2/exo5/exo5_en.ipynb +++ b/module2/exo5/exo5_en.ipynb @@ -260,30 +260,30 @@ "" ], "text/plain": [ - " Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction\n", - "0 4/12/81 6 66 50 0\n", - "1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1\n", - "2 3/22/82 6 69 50 0\n", - "3 11/11/82 6 68 50 0\n", - "4 4/04/83 6 67 50 0\n", - "5 6/18/82 6 72 50 0\n", - "6 8/30/83 6 73 100 0\n", - "7 11/28/83 6 70 100 0\n", - "8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1\n", - "9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1\n", - "10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1\n", - "11 10/05/84 6 78 200 0\n", - "12 11/08/84 6 67 200 0\n", - "13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2\n", - "14 4/12/85 6 67 200 0\n", - "15 4/29/85 6 75 200 0\n", - "16 6/17/85 6 70 200 0\n", - "17 7/29/85 6 81 200 0\n", - "18 8/27/85 6 76 200 0\n", - "19 10/03/85 6 79 200 0\n", - "20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2\n", - "21 11/26/85 6 76 200 0\n", - "22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1" + " Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction\n", + "0 4/12/81 6 66 50 0\n", + "1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1\n", + "2 3/22/82 6 69 50 0\n", + "3 11/11/82 6 68 50 0\n", + "4 4/04/83 6 67 50 0\n", + "5 6/18/82 6 72 50 0\n", + "6 8/30/83 6 73 100 0\n", + "7 11/28/83 6 70 100 0\n", + "8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1\n", + "9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1\n", + "10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1\n", + "11 10/05/84 6 78 200 0\n", + "12 11/08/84 6 67 200 0\n", + "13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2\n", + "14 4/12/85 6 67 200 0\n", + "15 4/29/85 6 75 200 0\n", + "16 6/17/85 6 70 200 0\n", + "17 7/29/85 6 81 200 0\n", + "18 8/27/85 6 76 200 0\n", + "19 10/03/85 6 79 200 0\n", + "20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2\n", + "21 11/26/85 6 76 200 0\n", + "22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1" ] }, "execution_count": 1, @@ -313,12 +313,14 @@ "Flights without incidents do not provide any information\n", "on the influence of temperature or pressure on malfunction.\n", "We thus focus on the experiments in which at least one O-ring\n", - "was defective." + "was defective.\n", + "\n", + "This is a very dubious step. I will exclude it in the following execution" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -347,6 +349,7 @@ " Temperature\n", " Pressure\n", " Malfunction\n", + " Frequency\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", @@ -357,6 +360,7 @@ " 70\n", " 50\n", " 1\n", + " 0.166667\n", " \n", " \n", " 8\n", @@ -365,6 +369,7 @@ " 57\n", " 200\n", " 1\n", + " 0.166667\n", " \n", " \n", " 9\n", @@ -373,6 +378,7 @@ " 63\n", " 200\n", " 1\n", + " 0.166667\n", " \n", " \n", " 10\n", @@ -381,6 +387,7 @@ " 70\n", " 200\n", " 1\n", + " 0.166667\n", " \n", " \n", " 13\n", @@ -389,6 +396,7 @@ " 53\n", " 200\n", " 2\n", + " 0.333333\n", " \n", " \n", " 20\n", @@ -397,6 +405,7 @@ " 75\n", " 200\n", " 2\n", + " 0.333333\n", " \n", " \n", " 22\n", @@ -405,30 +414,31 @@ " 58\n", " 200\n", " 1\n", + " 0.166667\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction\n", - "1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1\n", - "8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1\n", - "9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1\n", - "10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1\n", - "13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2\n", - "20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2\n", - "22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1" + " Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction Frequency\n", + "1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1 0.166667\n", + "8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1 0.166667\n", + "9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1 0.166667\n", + "10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1 0.166667\n", + "13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2 0.333333\n", + "20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2 0.333333\n", + "22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1 0.166667" ] }, - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ - "data = data[data.Malfunction>0]\n", - "data" + "#data = data[data.Malfunction>0]\n", + "#data" ] }, { @@ -444,12 +454,12 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { - "image/png": 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\n", + "image/png": 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\n", 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" ] @@ -495,7 +505,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -504,10 +514,10 @@ "\n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", " \n", @@ -516,16 +526,16 @@ " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results
Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 7Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 23
Model: GLM Df Residuals: 5Model: GLM Df Residuals: 21
Model Family: Binomial Df Model: 1Link Function: logit Scale: 1.0000
Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -2.5250Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -3.9210
Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2019 Deviance: 0.22231Date: Wed, 13 May 2020 Deviance: 3.0144
Time: 19:12:05 Pearson chi2: 0.236Time: 13:31:16 Pearson chi2: 5.00
No. Iterations: 4 Covariance Type: nonrobustNo. Iterations: 6 Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n", "\n", @@ -533,10 +543,10 @@ " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "\n", - " \n", + " \n", "\n", "
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
Intercept -1.3895 7.828 -0.178 0.859 -16.732 13.953Intercept 5.0850 7.477 0.680 0.496 -9.570 19.740
Temperature 0.0014 0.122 0.012 0.991 -0.238 0.240Temperature -0.1156 0.115 -1.004 0.316 -0.341 0.110
" ], @@ -545,24 +555,24 @@ "\"\"\"\n", " Generalized Linear Model Regression Results \n", "==============================================================================\n", - "Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 7\n", - "Model: GLM Df Residuals: 5\n", + "Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 23\n", + "Model: GLM Df Residuals: 21\n", "Model Family: Binomial Df Model: 1\n", "Link Function: logit Scale: 1.0000\n", - "Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -2.5250\n", - "Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2019 Deviance: 0.22231\n", - "Time: 19:12:05 Pearson chi2: 0.236\n", - "No. Iterations: 4 Covariance Type: nonrobust\n", + "Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -3.9210\n", + "Date: Wed, 13 May 2020 Deviance: 3.0144\n", + "Time: 13:31:16 Pearson chi2: 5.00\n", + "No. Iterations: 6 Covariance Type: nonrobust\n", "===============================================================================\n", " coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]\n", "-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n", - "Intercept -1.3895 7.828 -0.178 0.859 -16.732 13.953\n", - "Temperature 0.0014 0.122 0.012 0.991 -0.238 0.240\n", + "Intercept 5.0850 7.477 0.680 0.496 -9.570 19.740\n", + "Temperature -0.1156 0.115 -1.004 0.316 -0.341 0.110\n", "===============================================================================\n", "\"\"\"" ] }, - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -601,12 +611,12 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { - "image/png": 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\n", 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\n", 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" ] @@ -634,42 +644,35 @@ "scrolled": true }, "source": [ - "As expected from the initial data, the\n", + "~~As expected from the initial data, the\n", "temperature has no significant impact on the probability of failure of the\n", "O-rings. It will be about 0.2, as in the tests\n", "where we had a failure of at least one joint. Let's get back\n", - "to the initial dataset to estimate the probability of failure:" + "to the initial dataset to estimate the probability of failure:~~\n", + "\n", + "There is a significant impact from temperature on the probability of failure of the rings." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "0.06521739130434782\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ - "data = pd.read_csv(\"shuttle.csv\")\n", - "print(np.sum(data.Malfunction)/np.sum(data.Count))" + "p=(data_pred[data_pred.Temperature==30].Frequency)[0]" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "This probability is thus about $p=0.065$. Knowing that there is\n", + "~~This probability is thus about $p=0.065$. Knowing that there is\n", "a primary and a secondary O-ring on each of the three parts of the\n", "launcher, the probability of failure of both joints of a launcher\n", "is $p^2 \\approx 0.00425$. The probability of failure of any one of the\n", "launchers is $1-(1-p^2)^3 \\approx 1.2%$. That would really be\n", "bad luck.... Everything is under control, so the takeoff can happen\n", - "tomorrow as planned.\n", + "tomorrow as planned.~~\n", "\n", "But the next day, the Challenger shuttle exploded and took away\n", "with her the seven crew members. The public was shocked and in\n", @@ -681,6 +684,33 @@ "from all angles in order to to explain what's wrong." ] }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.9719549386704983" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "1-(1-p**2)**3" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "Following the same computation as before, we get a failure probability of $97.1\\%$. That is definitely alarming." + ] + }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, @@ -706,7 +736,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.7.3" + "version": "3.6.4" } }, "nbformat": 4, -- 2.18.1