calcul challenger mis à jour

30e70174 · 40b4b9646ff373fd7a7b82d082e9f49d · 1e3f2d58 · 30e70174
Commit 30e70174 authored Jan 28, 2024 by 40b4b9646ff373fd7a7b82d082e9f49d
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Showing with 89 additions and 107 deletions

exo5_fr.ipynb module2/exo5/exo5_fr.ipynb +89 -107

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--- a/module2/exo5/exo5_fr.ipynb
+++ b/module2/exo5/exo5_fr.ipynb
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 1,
+   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@
       "22   1/12/86      6           58       200            1"
      ]
     },
-     "execution_count": 1,
+     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
@@ -314,15 +314,15 @@
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Inspection graphique des données\n",
-    "Les vols où aucun incident n'est relevé n'apportant aucun information\n",
+    "On pourrait penser que les vols où aucun incident n'est relevé n'apportent aucun information\n",
    "sur l'influence de la température ou de la pression sur les\n",
-    "dysfonctionnements, nous nous concentrons sur les expériences où au\n",
-    "moins un joint a été défectueux.\n"
+    "dysfonctionnements, et se concentrer sur les expériences où au\n",
+    "moins un joint a été défectueux. C'est ce qui est montré dans le tableau ci-dessous.\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 2,
+   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
@@ -425,35 +425,49 @@
       "22   1/12/86      6           58       200            1"
      ]
     },
-     "execution_count": 2,
+     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
-    "data = data[data.Malfunction>0]\n",
-    "data"
+    "data1 = data[data.Malfunction>0]\n",
+    "data1"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
-    "Très bien, nous avons une variabilité de température importante mais\n",
-    "la pression est quasiment toujours égale à 200, ce qui devrait\n",
-    "simplifier l'analyse.\n",
+    "Le tableau indique une variabilité de température importante et\n",
+    "une pression quasiment toujours égale à 200, ce qui devrait\n",
+    "simplifier l'analyse. La température serait-elle plus impactante \n",
+    "sur les dysfonctionnements ? \n",
+    "\n",
+    "En réalité, il est nécessaire, si l'on veut obtenir la dépendance\n",
+    "réelle des dysfonctionnements sur les paramètres environementaux,\n",
+    "de prendre en compte tous les cas expérimentaux, notamment ceux\n",
+    "pour lesquels aucun dysfonctionnement n'apparaît.  \n",
+    "C'est d'ailleurs absolument nécessaire si l'on veut pouvoir dire \n",
+    "quelque chose sur la probabilité qu'un dysfonctionnement \n",
+    "apparaisse : sans prendre en compte ces cas expérimentaux, on\n",
+    "quantifie simplement l'influence de la température sur la\n",
+    "probabilité conditionnelle qu'un dysfonctionnement arrive, sachant\n",
+    "qu'au moins un dysfonctionnement est survenu.\n",
    "\n",
+    "Conservons cependant l'approche en fonction de la température,\n",
+    "mais sur l'ensemble des données expérimentales. \n",
    "Comment la fréquence d'échecs varie-t-elle avec la température ?\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 3,
+   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
-      "image/png": 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E8S1bW1luMbMnw7Xp/p/Ma77aYSjs41YfupIdk5O7zdsxOcnqQ1e2stxiZk+G66QjD5nXfLXDUNjHHXbQ/lx6zokcsGKEg/dfzgErRrj0nBPnPEG6t8stZvZkuI5bdTBveMlRu817w0uO8mTzgHmieRFYe9IRnH7c4fO+YmZvl1vM7MlwXXL2C3jDi4/mtm/dxI1/8GIDYQgMhUXisIP236s3sL1dbjGzJ8N13KqDGT9whYEwJB4+kiQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUsNQkCQ1DAVJUqPVUEhyVpK7k2xOcuEMz++f5DPd57+Z5Og265Ekza61UEiyDLgMeAVwAnBekhOmDHszsKWqjgM+ALyvrXokSXNrc0/hVGBzVd1TVduBK4Gzp4w5G/hk9/E1wMuSpMWaJEmzWN7iuo8A7u+ZHgdO29OYqtqZ5KfAYcCPegclWQes605OJLm7lYoX3uFM+V1kT2ZgT6azJzN7Kn15Tj+D2gyFmf7ir70YQ1WtB9YvRFGDlGRjVY0Ou46nE3synT2Zzp7MbBB9afPw0ThwZM/0auDBPY1Jshx4FvDjFmuSJM2izVC4BTg+yTFJ9gPOBTZMGbMBeGP38WuAL1fVtD0FSdJgtHb4qHuO4ALgemAZ8PGquiPJJcDGqtoA/HfgiiSb6ewhnNtWPUOyzx3yGgB7Mp09mc6ezKz1vsQ/zCVJu/iJZklSw1CQJDUMhQWS5N4ktyXZlGRjd97FSR7oztuU5JXDrnPQkhyS5Jok/5zkriQvSfILSW5I8i/dfw8ddp2DtIeeLNltJclze37vTUl+luTtS3k7maUnrW8nnlNYIEnuBUar6kc98y4GJqrqL4dV17Al+STwj1X1se5VaAcC7wZ+XFX/rXtPrEOr6l1DLXSA9tCTt7PEtxVobo/zAJ0Pup7PEt5OdpnSkzfR8nbinoJak+SZwK/RucqMqtpeVT9h99ubfBL4D8OpcPBm6Yk6Xgb8v6r6Pkt4O5mityetMxQWTgFfTPKt7m05drkgya1JPr6Udn+7jgV+CHwiyXeSfCzJM4BVVfUDgO6/vzjMIgdsTz2Bpb2t7HIu8Onu46W8nfTq7Qm0vJ0YCgvn9Ko6hc5dYc9P8mvAh4BfBk4CfgC8f4j1DcNy4BTgQ1V1MvAYMO0W6kvMnnqy1LcVuofS1gJXD7uWp4sZetL6dmIoLJCqerD778PAZ4FTq+qhqnqyqiaBj9K5c+xSMg6MV9U3u9PX0HlDfCjJswG6/z48pPqGYcaeuK0AnT+ovl1VD3Wnl/J2sstuPRnEdmIoLIAkz0hy8K7HwMuB23dt0F2vBm4fRn3DUlX/Ctyf5LndWS8D7mT325u8Efj8EMobij31ZKlvK13nsfthkiW7nfTYrSeD2E68+mgBJDmWzt4BdA4PfKqq/jzJFXR28wq4F/i9XcdIl4okJwEfA/YD7qFz9cQIcBVwFHAf8NqqWjI3QtxDTz7IEt5WkhxI5zb6x1bVT7vzDmNpbycz9aT19xRDQZLU8PCRJKlhKEiSGoaCJKlhKEiSGoaCJKnR2jevSYPWvYTxS93JXwKepHNLCeh8mHD7UAqbRZLfBa7rfn5BGjovSdWi9HS6Q22SZVX15B6e+xpwQVVtmsf6llfVzgUrUOrh4SMtCUnemOTm7j3o/y7JSJLlSX6S5C+SfDvJ9UlOS/KVJPfsuld9krck+Wz3+buTvKfP9b43yc3AqUn+LMktSW5P8uF0vJ7OB5E+011+vyTjSQ7prvvFSW7sPn5vko8kuYHOzfSWJ/mr7mvfmuQtg++qFiNDQYtekufTuSXAr1bVSXQOm57bffpZwBe7NzPcDlxM59YTrwUu6VnNqd1lTgH+Y5KT+ljvt6vq1Kr6BvA3VfUi4AXd586qqs8Am4DXV9VJfRzeOhl4VVX9NrAOeLiqTgVeROcmjEftTX+kXp5T0FJwJp03zo1JAFbSuX0AwNaquqH7+Dbgp1W1M8ltwNE967i+qrYAJPkc8FI6///sab3b+fmtTwBeluSdwAHA4cC3gC/M8/f4fFU90X38cuB5SXpD6Hg6t4OQ9pqhoKUgwMer6r/sNjNZTufNe5dJYFvP497/P6aefKs51ru1uifsuvew+Vs6d0N9IMl76YTDTHby8z34qWMem/I7va2qvoS0gDx8pKXgRuB1SQ6HzlVKe3Go5eXpfLfygXS+Eezr81jvSjoh86Pu3XTP6XnuUeDgnul7gRd2H/eOm+p64G3dANr1nb4r5/k7SdO4p6BFr6puS/JnwI1JRoAdwH8CHpzHar4GfIrOF5xcsetqoX7WW1WPpPO9zLcD3we+2fP0J4CPJdlK57zFxcBHk/wrcPMs9XyEzt1DN3UPXT1MJ6ykp8RLUqU5dK/seX5VvX3YtUht8/CRJKnhnoIkqeGegiSpYShIkhqGgiSpYShIkhqGgiSp8f8B+Q9eu+sB8EwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
+      "image/png": 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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
@@ -500,7 +514,7 @@
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 4,
+   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
@@ -509,10 +523,10 @@
       "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n",
       "<caption>Generalized Linear Model Regression Results</caption>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Dep. Variable:</th>      <td>Frequency</td>    <th>  No. Observations:  </th>  <td>     7</td>  \n",
+       "  <th>Dep. Variable:</th>      <td>Frequency</td>    <th>  No. Observations:  </th>  <td>    23</td>  \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Model:</th>                 <td>GLM</td>       <th>  Df Residuals:      </th>  <td>     5</td>  \n",
+       "  <th>Model:</th>                 <td>GLM</td>       <th>  Df Residuals:      </th>  <td>    21</td>  \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Model Family:</th>       <td>Binomial</td>     <th>  Df Model:          </th>  <td>     1</td>  \n",
@@ -521,16 +535,16 @@
       "  <th>Link Function:</th>        <td>logit</td>      <th>  Scale:             </th> <td>  1.0000</td> \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Method:</th>               <td>IRLS</td>       <th>  Log-Likelihood:    </th> <td> -2.5250</td> \n",
+       "  <th>Method:</th>               <td>IRLS</td>       <th>  Log-Likelihood:    </th> <td> -3.9210</td> \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Date:</th>           <td>Sat, 13 Apr 2019</td> <th>  Deviance:          </th> <td> 0.22231</td> \n",
+       "  <th>Date:</th>           <td>Sun, 28 Jan 2024</td> <th>  Deviance:          </th> <td>  3.0144</td> \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Time:</th>               <td>19:11:24</td>     <th>  Pearson chi2:      </th>  <td> 0.236</td>  \n",
+       "  <th>Time:</th>               <td>17:21:21</td>     <th>  Pearson chi2:      </th>  <td>  5.00</td>  \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>No. Iterations:</th>         <td>4</td>        <th>  Covariance Type:   </th> <td>nonrobust</td>\n",
+       "  <th>No. Iterations:</th>         <td>6</td>        <th>  Covariance Type:   </th> <td>nonrobust</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n",
@@ -538,10 +552,10 @@
       "       <td></td>          <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Intercept</th>   <td>   -1.3895</td> <td>    7.828</td> <td>   -0.178</td> <td> 0.859</td> <td>  -16.732</td> <td>   13.953</td>\n",
+       "  <th>Intercept</th>   <td>    5.0850</td> <td>    7.477</td> <td>    0.680</td> <td> 0.496</td> <td>   -9.570</td> <td>   19.740</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
-       "  <th>Temperature</th> <td>    0.0014</td> <td>    0.122</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td> 0.991</td> <td>   -0.238</td> <td>    0.240</td>\n",
+       "  <th>Temperature</th> <td>   -0.1156</td> <td>    0.115</td> <td>   -1.004</td> <td> 0.316</td> <td>   -0.341</td> <td>    0.110</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "</table>"
      ],
@@ -550,24 +564,24 @@
       "\"\"\"\n",
       "                 Generalized Linear Model Regression Results                  \n",
       "==============================================================================\n",
-       "Dep. Variable:              Frequency   No. Observations:                    7\n",
-       "Model:                            GLM   Df Residuals:                        5\n",
+       "Dep. Variable:              Frequency   No. Observations:                   23\n",
+       "Model:                            GLM   Df Residuals:                       21\n",
       "Model Family:                Binomial   Df Model:                            1\n",
       "Link Function:                  logit   Scale:                          1.0000\n",
-       "Method:                          IRLS   Log-Likelihood:                -2.5250\n",
-       "Date:                Sat, 13 Apr 2019   Deviance:                      0.22231\n",
-       "Time:                        19:11:24   Pearson chi2:                    0.236\n",
-       "No. Iterations:                     4   Covariance Type:             nonrobust\n",
+       "Method:                          IRLS   Log-Likelihood:                -3.9210\n",
+       "Date:                Sun, 28 Jan 2024   Deviance:                       3.0144\n",
+       "Time:                        17:21:21   Pearson chi2:                     5.00\n",
+       "No. Iterations:                     6   Covariance Type:             nonrobust\n",
       "===============================================================================\n",
       "                  coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
       "-------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
-       "Intercept      -1.3895      7.828     -0.178      0.859     -16.732      13.953\n",
-       "Temperature     0.0014      0.122      0.012      0.991      -0.238       0.240\n",
+       "Intercept       5.0850      7.477      0.680      0.496      -9.570      19.740\n",
+       "Temperature    -0.1156      0.115     -1.004      0.316      -0.341       0.110\n",
       "===============================================================================\n",
       "\"\"\""
      ]
     },
-     "execution_count": 4,
+     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
@@ -587,10 +601,9 @@
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
-    "L'estimateur le plus probable du paramètre de température est 0.0014\n",
-    "et l'erreur standard de cet estimateur est de 0.122, autrement dit on\n",
-    "ne peut pas distinguer d'impact particulier et il faut prendre nos\n",
-    "estimations avec des pincettes.\n"
+    "L'estimateur le plus probable du paramètre de température est -0.1156\n",
+    "et l'erreur standard de cet estimateur est de 0.115. La température a\n",
+    "un impact conséquent sur l'apparition de dysfonctionnements.\n"
   ]
  },
  {
@@ -605,12 +618,12 @@
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 5,
+   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
-      "image/png": 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\n",
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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
@@ -638,53 +651,22 @@
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "source": [
-    "Comme on pouvait s'attendre au vu des données initiales, la\n",
-    "température n'a pas d'impact notable sur la probabilité d'échec des\n",
-    "joints toriques. Elle sera d'environ 0.2, comme dans les essais\n",
-    "précédents où nous il y a eu défaillance d'au moins un joint. Revenons\n",
-    "à l'ensemble des données initiales pour estimer la probabilité de\n",
-    "défaillance d'un joint:\n"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 6,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "name": "stdout",
-     "output_type": "stream",
-     "text": [
-      "0.06521739130434782\n"
-     ]
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "data = pd.read_csv(\"shuttle.csv\")\n",
-    "print(np.sum(data.Malfunction)/np.sum(data.Count))"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "Cette probabilité est donc d'environ $p=0.065$, sachant qu'il existe\n",
-    "un joint primaire un joint secondaire sur chacune des trois parties du\n",
-    "lançeur, la probabilité de défaillance des deux joints d'un lançeur\n",
-    "est de $p^2 \\approx 0.00425$. La probabilité de défaillance d'un des\n",
-    "lançeur est donc de $1-(1-p^2)^3 \\approx 1.2%$.  Ça serait vraiment\n",
-    "pas de chance... Tout est sous contrôle, le décollage peut donc avoir\n",
-    "lieu demain comme prévu.\n",
+    " Elle sera d'environ 0.8, ce qui est très important. Même \n",
+    " en prenant en compte le fait que chaque joint est pairé \n",
+    " avec un autre, la probabilité de défaillance d'une paire \n",
+    " est $p^2 = 0.64$. La probabilité de défaillance d'un des\n",
+    "lançeur est donc de $1-(1-p^2)^3 \\approx 0.95%$. La navette \n",
+    "a toutes les chances d'exploser !!\n",
    "\n",
-    "Seulement, le lendemain, la navette Challenger explosera et emportera\n",
+    "Le lendemain, la navette Challenger explosera et emportera\n",
    "avec elle ses sept membres d'équipages. L'opinion publique est\n",
    "fortement touchée et lors de l'enquête qui suivra, la fiabilité des\n",
-    "joints toriques sera directement mise en cause. Au delà des problèmes\n",
-    "de communication interne à la NASA qui sont pour beaucoup dans ce\n",
-    "fiasco, l'analyse précédente comporte (au moins) un petit\n",
-    "problème... Saurez-vous le trouver ? Vous êtes libre de modifier cette\n",
-    "analyse et de regarder ce jeu de données sous tous les angles afin\n",
-    "d'expliquer ce qui ne va pas."
+    "joints toriques sera directement mise en cause. Les problèmes\n",
+    "de communication interne à la NASA sont pour beaucoup dans ce\n",
+    "fiasco. Le calcul effectué ci-dessous montre que tout indiquait déjà \n",
+    "une sombre fin à cette célèbre histoire. Cependant, est-il tout à \n",
+    "fait exacte. Je laisse le lecteur attentif s'en assurer, car mes\n",
+    "souvenirs de probabilité ne sont plus tous jeunes..."
   ]
  }
 ],
@@ -705,7 +687,7 @@
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.7.3"
+   "version": "3.6.4"
  }
 },
 "nbformat": 4,