diff --git a/module3/exo2/data_varicelle.csv b/module3/exo2/data_varicelle.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1cb0a0b52107ddcacbd6b497fb736f75f43056db
--- /dev/null
+++ b/module3/exo2/data_varicelle.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,1689 @@
+# @source="réseau Sentinelles, INSERM, Sorbonne Université, http://www.sentiweb.fr", @meta={"period":[199049,202313],"geo":["PAY","1"],"geo_ref":"insee","indicator":"7","type":"all","conf_int":true,"compact":false}, @date=2023-04-05T21:42:41+02:00
+week,indicator,inc,inc_low,inc_up,inc100,inc100_low,inc100_up,geo_insee,geo_name
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+202019,7,310,0,753,0,0,1,FR,France
+202018,7,849,98,1600,1,0,2,FR,France
+202017,7,272,0,658,0,0,1,FR,France
+202016,7,758,78,1438,1,0,2,FR,France
+202015,7,1918,675,3161,3,1,5,FR,France
+202014,7,3879,2227,5531,6,3,9,FR,France
+202013,7,7326,5236,9416,11,8,14,FR,France
+202012,7,8123,5790,10456,12,8,16,FR,France
+202011,7,10198,7568,12828,15,11,19,FR,France
+202010,7,9011,6691,11331,14,10,18,FR,France
+202009,7,13631,10544,16718,21,16,26,FR,France
+202008,7,10424,7708,13140,16,12,20,FR,France
+202007,7,8959,6574,11344,14,10,18,FR,France
+202006,7,9264,6925,11603,14,10,18,FR,France
+202005,7,8505,6314,10696,13,10,16,FR,France
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+202003,7,5968,4100,7836,9,6,12,FR,France
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+199917,7,13993,9229,18757,24,16,32,FR,France
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+199909,7,11125,6841,15409,19,12,26,FR,France
+199908,7,10840,7075,14605,19,13,25,FR,France
+199907,7,13655,9263,18047,23,15,31,FR,France
+199906,7,17654,12681,22627,30,21,39,FR,France
+199905,7,16838,11942,21734,29,21,37,FR,France
+199904,7,17056,12124,21988,29,21,37,FR,France
+199903,7,18805,13967,23643,32,24,40,FR,France
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+199852,7,23616,16902,30330,41,29,53,FR,France
+199851,7,13919,9478,18360,24,16,32,FR,France
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+199849,7,16232,11327,21137,28,20,36,FR,France
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+199846,7,7646,4419,10873,13,7,19,FR,France
+199845,7,15930,10713,21147,27,18,36,FR,France
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+199833,7,11431,6018,16844,20,11,29,FR,France
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+199320,7,11343,7655,15031,20,14,26,FR,France
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+199305,7,15954,12443,19465,28,22,34,FR,France
+199304,7,12374,9426,15322,22,17,27,FR,France
+199303,7,15283,11831,18735,27,21,33,FR,France
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+199250,7,15252,11566,18938,27,21,33,FR,France
+199249,7,14411,11187,17635,25,19,31,FR,France
+199248,7,10048,7396,12700,18,13,23,FR,France
+199247,7,13069,9752,16386,23,17,29,FR,France
+199246,7,6900,4727,9073,12,8,16,FR,France
+199245,7,10791,7794,13788,19,14,24,FR,France
+199244,7,10205,7482,12928,18,13,23,FR,France
+199243,7,7196,4908,9484,13,9,17,FR,France
+199242,7,5748,3738,7758,10,6,14,FR,France
+199241,7,3587,2045,5129,6,3,9,FR,France
+199240,7,5654,3442,7866,10,6,14,FR,France
+199239,7,4747,2751,6743,8,5,11,FR,France
+199238,7,2842,1306,4378,5,2,8,FR,France
+199237,7,4103,2203,6003,7,4,10,FR,France
+199236,7,2801,1200,4402,5,2,8,FR,France
+199235,7,6428,3717,9139,11,6,16,FR,France
+199234,7,7517,4190,10844,13,7,19,FR,France
+199233,7,9951,5955,13947,17,10,24,FR,France
+199232,7,16090,11337,20843,28,20,36,FR,France
+199231,7,17156,12441,21871,30,22,38,FR,France
+199230,7,21780,16301,27259,38,28,48,FR,France
+199229,7,18926,13397,24455,33,23,43,FR,France
+199228,7,28144,20384,35904,49,35,63,FR,France
+199227,7,29388,22331,36445,51,39,63,FR,France
+199226,7,27933,21686,34180,49,38,60,FR,France
+199225,7,26446,21153,31739,46,37,55,FR,France
+199224,7,19614,14769,24459,34,26,42,FR,France
+199223,7,23628,17852,29404,41,31,51,FR,France
+199222,7,20438,14868,26008,36,26,46,FR,France
+199221,7,22595,17395,27795,40,31,49,FR,France
+199220,7,21092,15963,26221,37,28,46,FR,France
+199219,7,19210,13934,24486,34,25,43,FR,France
+199218,7,30273,22605,37941,53,40,66,FR,France
+199217,7,19162,14251,24073,34,25,43,FR,France
+199216,7,15583,11158,20008,27,19,35,FR,France
+199215,7,15473,10723,20223,27,19,35,FR,France
+199214,7,14455,10040,18870,25,17,33,FR,France
+199213,7,17146,12105,22187,30,21,39,FR,France
+199212,7,15838,10923,20753,28,19,37,FR,France
+199211,7,20003,13824,26182,35,24,46,FR,France
+199210,7,22906,16060,29752,40,28,52,FR,France
+199209,7,21824,15687,27961,38,27,49,FR,France
+199208,7,15243,10265,20221,27,18,36,FR,France
+199207,7,22633,16160,29106,40,29,51,FR,France
+199206,7,17009,12219,21799,30,22,38,FR,France
+199205,7,15997,11590,20404,28,20,36,FR,France
+199204,7,20690,15075,26305,36,26,46,FR,France
+199203,7,18586,12684,24488,33,23,43,FR,France
+199202,7,16588,10590,22586,29,18,40,FR,France
+199201,7,23607,16552,30662,41,29,53,FR,France
+199152,7,15184,10392,19976,27,19,35,FR,France
+199151,7,15043,10624,19462,26,18,34,FR,France
+199150,7,14115,9737,18493,25,17,33,FR,France
+199149,7,13304,8548,18060,23,15,31,FR,France
+199148,7,15370,10164,20576,27,18,36,FR,France
+199147,7,12813,8139,17487,23,15,31,FR,France
+199146,7,6453,3123,9783,11,5,17,FR,France
+199145,7,8048,4083,12013,14,7,21,FR,France
+199144,7,9882,5623,14141,17,10,24,FR,France
+199143,7,14307,8645,19969,25,15,35,FR,France
+199142,7,6419,3334,9504,11,6,16,FR,France
+199141,7,6168,3113,9223,11,6,16,FR,France
+199140,7,3615,1159,6071,6,2,10,FR,France
+199139,7,3105,472,5738,5,0,10,FR,France
+199138,7,4446,1435,7457,8,3,13,FR,France
+199137,7,1457,0,3262,3,0,6,FR,France
+199136,7,3053,29,6077,5,0,10,FR,France
+199135,7,805,0,2556,1,0,4,FR,France
+199134,7,5512,856,10168,10,2,18,FR,France
+199133,7,7347,2903,11791,13,5,21,FR,France
+199132,7,16099,7334,24864,28,13,43,FR,France
+199131,7,16803,8145,25461,30,15,45,FR,France
+199130,7,15915,6368,25462,28,11,45,FR,France
+199129,7,23744,14703,32785,42,26,58,FR,France
+199128,7,24222,15617,32827,43,28,58,FR,France
+199127,7,20309,12868,27750,36,23,49,FR,France
+199126,7,17608,11304,23912,31,20,42,FR,France
+199125,7,16169,10700,21638,28,18,38,FR,France
+199124,7,16171,10071,22271,28,17,39,FR,France
+199123,7,11947,7671,16223,21,13,29,FR,France
+199122,7,15452,9953,20951,27,17,37,FR,France
+199121,7,14903,8975,20831,26,16,36,FR,France
+199120,7,19053,12742,25364,34,23,45,FR,France
+199119,7,16739,11246,22232,29,19,39,FR,France
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+199115,7,13975,9781,18169,25,18,32,FR,France
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diff --git a/module3/exo2/exercice.ipynb b/module3/exo2/exercice.ipynb
index 0bbbe371b01e359e381e43239412d77bf53fb1fb..6ab4758e225dd2b195783b76f62d83c25b5b2b6e 100644
--- a/module3/exo2/exercice.ipynb
+++ b/module3/exo2/exercice.ipynb
@@ -1,6 +1,3401 @@
{
- "cells": [],
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# Incidence de la varicelle"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 1,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ " %matplotlib inline\n",
+ "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import isoweek"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "###### Caractéristiques de l'installation"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {
+ "hideCode": false,
+ "hideOutput": false
+ },
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "uname_result(system='Linux', node='e38cee50978d', release='4.4.0-164-generic', version='#192-Ubuntu SMP Fri Sep 13 12:02:50 UTC 2019', machine='x86_64', processor='x86_64')\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import platform\n",
+ "print(platform.uname())"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 3,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "alembic==1.3.3\n",
+ "asn1crypto==1.3.0\n",
+ "async-generator==1.10\n",
+ "attrs==19.3.0\n",
+ "backcall==0.1.0\n",
+ "beautifulsoup4==4.6.3\n",
+ "bleach==3.1.0\n",
+ "blinker==1.4\n",
+ "bokeh==0.12.16\n",
+ "certifi==2020.4.5.1\n",
+ "certipy==0.1.3\n",
+ "cffi==1.13.2\n",
+ "chardet==3.0.4\n",
+ "cloudpickle==0.5.6\n",
+ "conda==4.8.2\n",
+ "conda-package-handling==1.6.0\n",
+ "cryptography==2.5\n",
+ "cycler==0.10.0\n",
+ "Cython==0.28.5\n",
+ "cytoolz==0.10.1\n",
+ "dask==2.11.0\n",
+ "decorator==4.4.1\n",
+ "defusedxml==0.6.0\n",
+ "dill==0.2.9\n",
+ "entrypoints==0.3\n",
+ "fastcache==1.1.0\n",
+ "gmplot==1.2.0\n",
+ "gmpy2==2.1.0b1\n",
+ "h5py==2.7.1\n",
+ "hide-code==0.5.6\n",
+ "idna==2.9\n",
+ "imageio==2.8.0\n",
+ "inflect==4.0.0\n",
+ "ipykernel==5.1.4\n",
+ "ipython==7.12.0\n",
+ "ipython-genutils==0.2.0\n",
+ "ipywidgets==7.2.1\n",
+ "isoweek==1.3.3\n",
+ "jaraco.itertools==5.0.0\n",
+ "jedi==0.16.0\n",
+ "Jinja2==2.11.0\n",
+ "json5==0.8.5\n",
+ "jsonschema==3.0.2\n",
+ "jupyter==1.0.0\n",
+ "jupyter-client==6.0.0\n",
+ "jupyter-console==6.1.0\n",
+ "jupyter-core==4.6.3\n",
+ "jupyter-telemetry==0.0.4\n",
+ "jupyterhub==0.8.1\n",
+ "jupyterlab==1.2.5\n",
+ "jupyterlab-server==1.0.6\n",
+ "kiwisolver==1.1.0\n",
+ "llvmlite==0.23.0\n",
+ "Mako==1.1.0\n",
+ "MarkupSafe==1.1.1\n",
+ "matplotlib==2.2.3\n",
+ "mistune==0.8.4\n",
+ "more-itertools==8.2.0\n",
+ "mpmath==1.1.0\n",
+ "nbconvert==5.6.1\n",
+ "nbformat==5.0.4\n",
+ "nbgit==0.0.1\n",
+ "networkx==2.4\n",
+ "notebook==6.0.3\n",
+ "numba==0.38.1\n",
+ "numexpr==2.6.9\n",
+ "numpy==1.15.2\n",
+ "oauthlib==3.0.1\n",
+ "olefile==0.46\n",
+ "packaging==20.1\n",
+ "pamela==1.0.0\n",
+ "pandas==0.22.0\n",
+ "pandocfilters==1.4.2\n",
+ "parso==0.6.0\n",
+ "patsy==0.5.1\n",
+ "pdfkit==0.6.1\n",
+ "pexpect==4.8.0\n",
+ "pickleshare==0.7.5\n",
+ "Pillow==7.0.0\n",
+ "prometheus-client==0.7.1\n",
+ "prompt-toolkit==3.0.3\n",
+ "protobuf==3.11.3\n",
+ "ptyprocess==0.6.0\n",
+ "pycosat==0.6.3\n",
+ "pycparser==2.19\n",
+ "pycurl==7.43.0.1\n",
+ "Pygments==2.5.2\n",
+ "PyJWT==1.7.1\n",
+ "pyOpenSSL==19.0.0\n",
+ "pyparsing==2.4.6\n",
+ "pyrsistent==0.15.7\n",
+ "PySocks==1.7.1\n",
+ "python-dateutil==2.8.1\n",
+ "python-editor==1.0.4\n",
+ "python-json-logger==0.1.11\n",
+ "python-oauth2==1.1.1\n",
+ "pytz==2019.3\n",
+ "PyWavelets==1.1.1\n",
+ "PyYAML==5.3\n",
+ "pyzmq==17.1.2\n",
+ "qtconsole==4.6.0\n",
+ "requests==2.23.0\n",
+ "rpy2==2.9.4\n",
+ "ruamel-yaml==0.15.80\n",
+ "scikit-image==0.14.3\n",
+ "scikit-learn==0.19.2\n",
+ "scipy==1.1.0\n",
+ "seaborn==0.8.1\n",
+ "Send2Trash==1.5.0\n",
+ "sh==1.12.14\n",
+ "simplegeneric==0.8.1\n",
+ "six==1.14.0\n",
+ "SQLAlchemy==1.2.18\n",
+ "statsmodels==0.9.0\n",
+ "sympy==1.1.1\n",
+ "terminado==0.8.3\n",
+ "testpath==0.4.4\n",
+ "toolz==0.10.0\n",
+ "tornado==6.0.3\n",
+ "tqdm==4.42.0\n",
+ "traitlets==4.3.3\n",
+ "tzlocal==2.0.0\n",
+ "urllib3==1.25.7\n",
+ "vincent==0.4.4\n",
+ "wcwidth==0.1.8\n",
+ "webencodings==0.5.1\n",
+ "widgetsnbextension==3.2.1\n",
+ "xlrd==1.2.0\n",
+ "zipp==2.1.0\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "%%sh\n",
+ "pip freeze"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 4,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Name: matplotlib\n",
+ "Version: 2.2.3\n",
+ "Summary: Python plotting package\n",
+ "Home-page: http://matplotlib.org\n",
+ "Author: John D. Hunter, Michael Droettboom\n",
+ "Author-email: matplotlib-users@python.org\n",
+ "License: BSD\n",
+ "Location: /opt/conda/lib/python3.6/site-packages\n",
+ "Requires: numpy, cycler, pyparsing, python-dateutil, pytz, six, kiwisolver\n",
+ "Required-by: seaborn, scikit-image\n",
+ " \n",
+ "Name: pandas\n",
+ "Version: 0.22.0\n",
+ "Summary: Powerful data structures for data analysis, time series,and statistics\n",
+ "Home-page: http://pandas.pydata.org\n",
+ "Author: None\n",
+ "Author-email: None\n",
+ "License: BSD\n",
+ "Location: /opt/conda/lib/python3.6/site-packages\n",
+ "Requires: python-dateutil, pytz, numpy\n",
+ "Required-by: vincent, seaborn\n",
+ " \n",
+ "Name: isoweek\n",
+ "Version: 1.3.3\n",
+ "Summary: Objects representing a week\n",
+ "Home-page: http://github.com/gisle/isoweek\n",
+ "Author: Gisle Aas\n",
+ "Author-email: gisle@aas.no\n",
+ "License: BSD\n",
+ "Location: /opt/conda/lib/python3.6/site-packages\n",
+ "Requires: \n",
+ "Required-by: \n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "%%sh\n",
+ "pip show matplotlib\n",
+ "echo \" \"\n",
+ "pip show pandas\n",
+ "echo \" \"\n",
+ "pip show isoweek"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {
+ "hideCode": false,
+ "hideOutput": false,
+ "hidePrompt": false
+ },
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "IPython 7.12.0\n",
+ "IPython.core (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.alias (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.application (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.async_helpers (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.autocall (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.builtin_trap (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.compilerop (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.completer (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.completerlib (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.crashhandler (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.debugger (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.display (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.display_trap (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.displayhook (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.displaypub (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.error (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.events (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.excolors (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.extensions (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.formatters (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.getipython (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.history (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.hooks (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.inputtransformer2 (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.interactiveshell (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.latex_symbols (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.logger (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.macro (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magic (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magic_arguments (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.auto (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.basic (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.code (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.config (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.display (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.execution (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.extension (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.history (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.logging (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.namespace (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.osm (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.packaging (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.pylab (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.magics.script (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.oinspect (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.page (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.payload (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.payloadpage (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.prefilter (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.profiledir (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.pylabtools (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.release 7.12.0\n",
+ "IPython.core.shellapp (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.splitinput (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.ultratb (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.core.usage (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.display (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.extensions (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.extensions.storemagic (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib.backgroundjobs (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib.clipboard (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib.display (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib.pretty (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.lib.security (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.paths (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.terminal (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.terminal.debugger (unknown version)\n",
+ "IPython.terminal.embed (unknown version)\n",
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+ "IPython.terminal.ipapp (unknown version)\n",
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+ "tornado.concurrent (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.escape (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.gen (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.ioloop (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.locks (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.log (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.platform (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.platform.asyncio (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.queues (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.speedups (unknown version)\n",
+ "tornado.util (unknown version)\n",
+ "traceback (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets 4.3.3\n",
+ "traitlets._version 4.3.3\n",
+ "traitlets.config (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.config.application (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.config.configurable (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.config.loader (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.log (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.traitlets (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.utils (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.utils.bunch (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.utils.getargspec (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.utils.importstring (unknown version)\n",
+ "traitlets.utils.sentinel (unknown version)\n",
+ "tty (unknown version)\n",
+ "types (unknown version)\n",
+ "typing (unknown version)\n",
+ "typing.io (unknown version)\n",
+ "typing.re (unknown version)\n",
+ "unicodedata (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.case (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.loader (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.main (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.result (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.runner (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.signals (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.suite (unknown version)\n",
+ "unittest.util (unknown version)\n",
+ "urllib (unknown version)\n",
+ "urllib.error (unknown version)\n",
+ "urllib.parse (unknown version)\n",
+ "urllib.request 3.6\n",
+ "urllib.response (unknown version)\n",
+ "uu (unknown version)\n",
+ "uuid (unknown version)\n",
+ "warnings (unknown version)\n",
+ "wcwidth (unknown version)\n",
+ "wcwidth.table_wide (unknown version)\n",
+ "wcwidth.table_zero (unknown version)\n",
+ "wcwidth.wcwidth (unknown version)\n",
+ "weakref (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom.NodeFilter (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom.domreg (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom.minicompat (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom.minidom (unknown version)\n",
+ "xml.dom.xmlbuilder (unknown version)\n",
+ "zipimport (unknown version)\n",
+ "zlib 1.0\n",
+ "zmq 17.1.2\n",
+ "zmq._future (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.asyncio (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython._device (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython._poll (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython._version (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.constants (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.context (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.error (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.message (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.socket (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.cython.utils (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.backend.select (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.error (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop.ioloop (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop.minitornado (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop.minitornado.stack_context (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop.minitornado.util (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.eventloop.zmqstream (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar 17.1.2\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.attrsettr (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.constants (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.context (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.frame (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.poll (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.socket (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.stopwatch (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.tracker (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.sugar.version 17.1.2\n",
+ "zmq.utils (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.utils.constant_names (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.utils.jsonapi (unknown version)\n",
+ "zmq.utils.strtypes (unknown version)\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "def print_imported_modules():\n",
+ " import sys\n",
+ " for name, val in sorted(sys.modules.items()):\n",
+ " if(hasattr(val, '__version__')): \n",
+ " print(val.__name__, val.__version__)\n",
+ " else:\n",
+ " print(val.__name__, \"(unknown version)\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print_imported_modules()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## DĂ©but de l'analyse"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "### Chargement du fichier"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 6,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "data_url = \"https://www.sentiweb.fr/datasets/incidence-PAY-7.csv\""
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "Voici l'explication des colonnes données [sur le site d'origine](https://ns.sentiweb.fr/incidence/csv-schema-v1.json):\n",
+ "\n",
+ "| Nom de colonne | Libellé de colonne |\n",
+ "|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n",
+ "| week | Semaine calendaire (ISO 8601) |\n",
+ "| indicator | Code de l'indicateur de surveillance |\n",
+ "| inc | Estimation de l'incidence de consultations en nombre de cas |\n",
+ "| inc_low | Estimation de la borne inférieure de l'IC95% du nombre de cas de consultation |\n",
+ "| inc_up | Estimation de la borne supérieure de l'IC95% du nombre de cas de consultation |\n",
+ "| inc100 | Estimation du taux d'incidence du nombre de cas de consultation (en cas pour 100,000 habitants) |\n",
+ "| inc100_low | Estimation de la borne inférieure de l'IC95% du taux d'incidence du nombre de cas de consultation (en cas pour 100,000 habitants) |\n",
+ "| inc100_up | Estimation de la borne supérieure de l'IC95% du taux d'incidence du nombre de cas de consultation (en cas pour 100,000 habitants) |\n",
+ "| geo_insee | Code de la zone géographique concernée (Code INSEE) http://www.insee.fr/fr/methodes/nomenclatures/cog/ |\n",
+ "| geo_name | Libellé de la zone géographique (ce libellé peut être modifié sans préavis) |\n",
+ "\n",
+ "La première ligne du fichier CSV est un commentaire, que nous ignorons en précisant `skiprows=1`."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "Pour nous protéger contre une éventuelle disparition ou modification du serveur du Réseau Sentinelles, nous faisons une copie locale de ce jeux de données que nous préservons avec notre analyse. Il est inutile et même risquée de télécharger les données à chaque exécution, car dans le cas l'une panne nous pourrions remplacer nos données par un fichier défectueux. Pour cette raison, nous téléchargeons les données seulement si la copie locale n'existe pas."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 7,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "data_file = \"data_varicelle.csv\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "import os\n",
+ "import urllib.request\n",
+ "if not os.path.exists(data_file):\n",
+ " urllib.request.urlretrieve(data_url, data_file)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 8,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
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+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 12265 | \n",
+ " 7684 | \n",
+ " 16846 | \n",
+ " 22 | \n",
+ " 14 | \n",
+ " 30 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1670 | \n",
+ " 199113 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 9567 | \n",
+ " 6041 | \n",
+ " 13093 | \n",
+ " 17 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 23 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1671 | \n",
+ " 199112 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10864 | \n",
+ " 7331 | \n",
+ " 14397 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 13 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1672 | \n",
+ " 199111 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15574 | \n",
+ " 11184 | \n",
+ " 19964 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 35 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1673 | \n",
+ " 199110 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 16643 | \n",
+ " 11372 | \n",
+ " 21914 | \n",
+ " 29 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " 38 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1674 | \n",
+ " 199109 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 13741 | \n",
+ " 8780 | \n",
+ " 18702 | \n",
+ " 24 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 33 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1675 | \n",
+ " 199108 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 13289 | \n",
+ " 8813 | \n",
+ " 17765 | \n",
+ " 23 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 31 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1676 | \n",
+ " 199107 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 12337 | \n",
+ " 8077 | \n",
+ " 16597 | \n",
+ " 22 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 29 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1677 | \n",
+ " 199106 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10877 | \n",
+ " 7013 | \n",
+ " 14741 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 12 | \n",
+ " 26 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1678 | \n",
+ " 199105 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10442 | \n",
+ " 6544 | \n",
+ " 14340 | \n",
+ " 18 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1679 | \n",
+ " 199104 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 7913 | \n",
+ " 4563 | \n",
+ " 11263 | \n",
+ " 14 | \n",
+ " 8 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1680 | \n",
+ " 199103 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15387 | \n",
+ " 10484 | \n",
+ " 20290 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " 18 | \n",
+ " 36 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1681 | \n",
+ " 199102 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 16277 | \n",
+ " 11046 | \n",
+ " 21508 | \n",
+ " 29 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " 38 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1682 | \n",
+ " 199101 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15565 | \n",
+ " 10271 | \n",
+ " 20859 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " 18 | \n",
+ " 36 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1683 | \n",
+ " 199052 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 19375 | \n",
+ " 13295 | \n",
+ " 25455 | \n",
+ " 34 | \n",
+ " 23 | \n",
+ " 45 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1684 | \n",
+ " 199051 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 19080 | \n",
+ " 13807 | \n",
+ " 24353 | \n",
+ " 34 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " 43 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1685 | \n",
+ " 199050 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 11079 | \n",
+ " 6660 | \n",
+ " 15498 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " 12 | \n",
+ " 28 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1686 | \n",
+ " 199049 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 1143 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 2610 | \n",
+ " 2 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 5 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
1687 rows Ă— 10 columns
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " week | \n",
+ " indicator | \n",
+ " inc | \n",
+ " inc_low | \n",
+ " inc_up | \n",
+ " inc100 | \n",
+ " inc100_low | \n",
+ " inc100_up | \n",
+ " geo_insee | \n",
+ " geo_name | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 0 | \n",
+ " 202313 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 12675 | \n",
+ " 8518 | \n",
+ " 16832 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 13 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1 | \n",
+ " 202312 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10252 | \n",
+ " 7063 | \n",
+ " 13441 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 2 | \n",
+ " 202311 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4919 | \n",
+ " 2880 | \n",
+ " 6958 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 3 | \n",
+ " 202310 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4854 | \n",
+ " 2731 | \n",
+ " 6977 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 4 | \n",
+ " 202309 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 7004 | \n",
+ " 4548 | \n",
+ " 9460 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " week | \n",
+ " indicator | \n",
+ " inc | \n",
+ " inc_low | \n",
+ " inc_up | \n",
+ " inc100 | \n",
+ " inc100_low | \n",
+ " inc100_up | \n",
+ " geo_insee | \n",
+ " geo_name | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1219 | \n",
+ " 199946 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 6544 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 15074 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 26 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 707 | \n",
+ " 200937 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 1989 | \n",
+ " 362 | \n",
+ " 3616 | \n",
+ " 3 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 6 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 15 | \n",
+ " 202250 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 6590 | \n",
+ " 3100 | \n",
+ " 10080 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " 5 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1207 | \n",
+ " 200006 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 9017 | \n",
+ " 5391 | \n",
+ " 12643 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 9 | \n",
+ " 21 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 547 | \n",
+ " 201240 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 9175 | \n",
+ " 5327 | \n",
+ " 13023 | \n",
+ " 14 | \n",
+ " 8 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1682 | \n",
+ " 199101 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15565 | \n",
+ " 10271 | \n",
+ " 20859 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " 18 | \n",
+ " 36 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1212 | \n",
+ " 200001 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10986 | \n",
+ " 6521 | \n",
+ " 15451 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1593 | \n",
+ " 199238 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 2842 | \n",
+ " 1306 | \n",
+ " 4378 | \n",
+ " 5 | \n",
+ " 2 | \n",
+ " 8 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1663 | \n",
+ " 199120 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 19053 | \n",
+ " 12742 | \n",
+ " 25364 | \n",
+ " 34 | \n",
+ " 23 | \n",
+ " 45 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 147 | \n",
+ " 202023 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 558 | \n",
+ " 1 | \n",
+ " 1115 | \n",
+ " 1 | \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 2 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " week | \n",
+ " indicator | \n",
+ " inc | \n",
+ " inc_low | \n",
+ " inc_up | \n",
+ " inc100 | \n",
+ " inc100_low | \n",
+ " inc100_up | \n",
+ " geo_insee | \n",
+ " geo_name | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 0 | \n",
+ " 202313 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 12675 | \n",
+ " 8518 | \n",
+ " 16832 | \n",
+ " 19 | \n",
+ " 13 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 1 | \n",
+ " 202312 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 10252 | \n",
+ " 7063 | \n",
+ " 13441 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 2 | \n",
+ " 202311 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4919 | \n",
+ " 2880 | \n",
+ " 6958 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 3 | \n",
+ " 202310 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4854 | \n",
+ " 2731 | \n",
+ " 6977 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 4 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " | 4 | \n",
+ " 202309 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 7004 | \n",
+ " 4548 | \n",
+ " 9460 | \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 15 | \n",
+ " FR | \n",
+ " France | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "