"# Concentration de CO2 dans l'atmosphère depuis 1958"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Les données pour cette étude ont été téléchargées au format CSV le 8 Janvier 2020 via [le lien du MOOC](https://gitlab.inria.fr/learninglab/mooc-rr/mooc-rr-ressources/blob/master/module3/Practical_session/Subject6_smoking.csv).\n",
"Sur chaque ligne il est indiqué si la personne fume ou non, si elle est vivante ou décédée au moment de la seconde étude, et son âge lors du premier sondage."
"Y a-t-il des points manquants dans ce jeux de données ? Non il n'y en a pas"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Dans un tableau sont représentés le nombre total de femmes vivantes et décédées sur la période en fonction de leur habitude de tabagisme. Pour chaque groupe (fumeuses / non fumeuses) le taux de mortalité (le rapport entre le nombre de femmes décédées dans un groupe et le nombre total de femmes dans ce groupe) est aussi calculé."
"Ces résultats sont surpenants car ils montrent qu'il y a plus de femmes qui ne fumaient pas lors de la première étude qui sont mortes au moement de la deuxième (230 non fumeuses mortes) que de femmes qui fumaient (139 fumeuses mortes). Le taux de mortalité est plus élevé chez les non fumeuses (31 %) que chez les fumeuses (24 %).\n",
"Après 20 ans, le taux de mortalité chez les fumeuses est de 24%, alors que celui des non-fumeuses est de 31%. Alors, est-ce que non-fumer tue ?\n",
"\n",
"Afin de préciser cette étude les effectifs et les taux de mortalité vont être recalculés en ajoutant une nouvelle catégorie liée à la classe d'âge. Ici sont considéres les classes d'ages suivantes : 18-34 ans, 34-54 ans, 55-64 ans et plus de 65 ans."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 91,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Smoker</th>\n",
" <th>Status</th>\n",
" <th>Age</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>21.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>19.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>23.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>24.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>10</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>30.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>15</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>25.1</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>17</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.1</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>22</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>33.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>24</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>18.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>27</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>25.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>29</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>20.2</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>33</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>19.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>37</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>29.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>38</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Dead</td>\n",
" <td>33.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>44</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>25.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>47</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>18.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>49</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>22.1</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>54</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>28.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>58</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>22.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>65</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>33.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>67</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>71</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>26.2</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>76</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.6</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>77</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>31.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>79</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>18.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>81</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>25.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>84</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>86</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>32.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>91</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>18.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>92</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>20.2</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1205</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>23.2</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1207</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>31.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1208</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>30.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1213</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>21.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1216</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1217</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>29.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1219</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1223</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>28.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1226</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>31.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1232</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>28.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1240</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>29.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1247</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>26.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1250</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>19.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1251</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1253</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>27.8</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1255</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Dead</td>\n",
" <td>28.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1256</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>26.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1260</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>20.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1263</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>20.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1265</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>26.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1267</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>33.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1271</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>24.9</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1272</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>33.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1274</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>25.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1275</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>19.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1277</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>23.4</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1297</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>32.7</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1301</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>20.5</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1303</th>\n",
" <td>Yes</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>31.2</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1310</th>\n",
" <td>No</td>\n",
" <td>Alive</td>\n",
" <td>22.3</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>400 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Smoker Status Age\n",
"0 Yes Alive 21.0\n",
"1 Yes Alive 19.3\n",
"6 No Alive 23.8\n",
"8 Yes Alive 24.8\n",
"10 Yes Alive 30.0\n",
"15 No Alive 25.1\n",
"17 No Alive 27.1\n",
"22 No Alive 33.4\n",
"24 No Alive 18.0\n",
"27 No Alive 25.8\n",
"29 No Alive 20.2\n",
"33 No Alive 19.4\n",
"37 Yes Alive 29.5\n",
"38 Yes Dead 33.0\n",
"44 No Alive 25.3\n",
"47 No Alive 18.5\n",
"49 Yes Alive 22.1\n",
"54 No Alive 28.4\n",
"58 No Alive 22.9\n",
"65 Yes Alive 33.0\n",
"67 Yes Alive 27.9\n",
"71 Yes Alive 26.2\n",
"76 No Alive 27.6\n",
"77 Yes Alive 31.4\n",
"79 No Alive 18.9\n",
"81 Yes Alive 25.4\n",
"84 No Alive 27.3\n",
"86 No Alive 32.8\n",
"91 No Alive 18.3\n",
"92 Yes Alive 20.2\n",
"... ... ... ...\n",
"1205 No Alive 23.2\n",
"1207 Yes Alive 31.4\n",
"1208 Yes Alive 30.0\n",
"1213 No Alive 21.4\n",
"1216 Yes Alive 27.9\n",
"1217 Yes Alive 29.5\n",
"1219 Yes Alive 27.0\n",
"1223 Yes Alive 28.3\n",
"1226 Yes Alive 31.0\n",
"1232 No Alive 28.3\n",
"1240 Yes Alive 29.7\n",
"1247 No Alive 26.0\n",
"1250 No Alive 19.8\n",
"1251 Yes Alive 27.8\n",
"1253 Yes Alive 27.8\n",
"1255 No Dead 28.5\n",
"1256 No Alive 26.7\n",
"1260 Yes Alive 20.4\n",
"1263 Yes Alive 20.9\n",
"1265 No Alive 26.7\n",
"1267 No Alive 33.7\n",
"1271 Yes Alive 24.9\n",
"1272 No Alive 33.0\n",
"1274 No Alive 25.7\n",
"1275 No Alive 19.5\n",
"1277 No Alive 23.4\n",
"1297 Yes Alive 32.7\n",
"1301 No Alive 20.5\n",
"1303 Yes Alive 31.2\n",
"1310 No Alive 22.3\n",
"\n",
"[400 rows x 3 columns]"
]
},
"execution_count": 91,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Pour ne garder que les femmes ayant entre 18 et 34 ans : enlèves colonnes > 34 ans\n",
"ax.set_title(\"Taux d emortalité par tranche d'âge\")\n",
"ax.set_xticks(x)\n",
"ax.set_ylim([0,100])\n",
"ax.set_xticklabels(labels)\n",
"ax.legend()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"D'après les graphiques précédents, si on raisonne par classe d’âge, dans chaque tranche la mortalité chez les fumeuses a été supérieure à celle des non-fumeuses. C'est rassurant, mais comment les chiffres peuvent-ils s’inverser quand on groupe tout le monde ?\n",
"\n",
"En fait dans la population initiale, il y avait plus de femmes âgées chez les non-fumeuses que chez les fumeuses. Et même si dans chaque tranche d’âge les non-fumeuses meurent moins, cet effet est compensé par le fait que la tranche d’âge « élevée » est sur-représentée chez les non-fumeuses… qui donc en moyenne meurent plus !"
