{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Evolution de la concentration atmosphérique en CO2" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Import des packages Python utiles à cette analyse:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 97, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "%matplotlib inline\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import datetime\n", "import os\n", "from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression\n", "import numpy as np\n", "from urllib.request import urlretrieve" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": { "hideOutput": false }, "source": [ "On récupère les données hebdomadaires de concentration sur le [site de l'institut Scripps](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/mlo.html). Ces mesures sont effectuées à l'observatoire Mauna Loa, situé à Hawaii. Date de téléchargement des données utilisées pour cette analyse: **26 juin 2020**. " ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 98, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "data_url = 'https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/data/atmospheric/stations/in_situ_co2/weekly/weekly_in_situ_co2_mlo.csv'\n", "file_name = os.path.split(data_url)[1]\n", "if not os.path.exists(file_name):\n", " urlretrieve(data_url, file_name)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "On lit le fichier CSV téléchargé, il contient 44 lignes d'en-tête que nous ignorons. On attribue les libellés 'date' et 'CO2' aux colonnes de date (au format AAAA-MM-JJ) et concentration en CO2 ([en ppm](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partie_par_million)) des données mesurées." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 99, "metadata": { "scrolled": true }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | date | \n", "CO2 | \n", "
---|---|---|
0 | \n", "1958-03-29 | \n", "316.19 | \n", "
1 | \n", "1958-04-05 | \n", "317.31 | \n", "
2 | \n", "1958-04-12 | \n", "317.69 | \n", "
3 | \n", "1958-04-19 | \n", "317.58 | \n", "
4 | \n", "1958-04-26 | \n", "316.48 | \n", "
5 | \n", "1958-05-03 | \n", "316.95 | \n", "
6 | \n", "1958-05-17 | \n", "317.56 | \n", "
7 | \n", "1958-05-24 | \n", "317.99 | \n", "
8 | \n", "1958-07-05 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
9 | \n", "1958-07-12 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
10 | \n", "1958-07-19 | \n", "315.46 | \n", "
11 | \n", "1958-07-26 | \n", "315.59 | \n", "
12 | \n", "1958-08-02 | \n", "315.64 | \n", "
13 | \n", "1958-08-09 | \n", "315.10 | \n", "
14 | \n", "1958-08-16 | \n", "315.09 | \n", "
15 | \n", "1958-08-30 | \n", "314.14 | \n", "
16 | \n", "1958-09-06 | \n", "313.54 | \n", "
17 | \n", "1958-11-08 | \n", "313.05 | \n", "
18 | \n", "1958-11-15 | \n", "313.26 | \n", "
19 | \n", "1958-11-22 | \n", "313.57 | \n", "
20 | \n", "1958-11-29 | \n", "314.01 | \n", "
21 | \n", "1958-12-06 | \n", "314.56 | \n", "
22 | \n", "1958-12-13 | \n", "314.41 | \n", "
23 | \n", "1958-12-20 | \n", "314.77 | \n", "
24 | \n", "1958-12-27 | \n", "315.21 | \n", "
25 | \n", "1959-01-03 | \n", "315.24 | \n", "
26 | \n", "1959-01-10 | \n", "315.50 | \n", "
27 | \n", "1959-01-17 | \n", "315.69 | \n", "
28 | \n", "1959-01-24 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "
29 | \n", "1959-01-31 | \n", "315.42 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
3143 | \n", "2019-11-02 | \n", "409.86 | \n", "
3144 | \n", "2019-11-09 | \n", "410.15 | \n", "
3145 | \n", "2019-11-16 | \n", "410.22 | \n", "
3146 | \n", "2019-11-23 | \n", "410.48 | \n", "
3147 | \n", "2019-11-30 | \n", "410.92 | \n", "
3148 | \n", "2019-12-07 | \n", "411.27 | \n", "
3149 | \n", "2019-12-14 | \n", "411.67 | \n", "
3150 | \n", "2019-12-21 | \n", "412.30 | \n", "
3151 | \n", "2019-12-28 | \n", "412.59 | \n", "
3152 | \n", "2020-01-04 | \n", "413.19 | \n", "
3153 | \n", "2020-01-11 | \n", "413.39 | \n", "
3154 | \n", "2020-01-25 | \n", "413.36 | \n", "
3155 | \n", "2020-02-01 | \n", "413.99 | \n", "
3156 | \n", "2020-02-08 | \n", "414.83 | \n", "
3157 | \n", "2020-02-15 | \n", "413.81 | \n", "
3158 | \n", "2020-02-22 | \n", "414.17 | \n", "
3159 | \n", "2020-02-29 | \n", "413.89 | \n", "
3160 | \n", "2020-03-07 | \n", "414.00 | \n", "
3161 | \n", "2020-03-14 | \n", "414.30 | \n", "
3162 | \n", "2020-03-21 | \n", "414.62 | \n", "
3163 | \n", "2020-03-28 | \n", "415.57 | \n", "
3164 | \n", "2020-04-04 | \n", "415.61 | \n", "
3165 | \n", "2020-04-11 | \n", "416.47 | \n", "
3166 | \n", "2020-04-18 | \n", "416.60 | \n", "
3167 | \n", "2020-04-25 | \n", "415.86 | \n", "
3168 | \n", "2020-05-02 | \n", "417.20 | \n", "
3169 | \n", "2020-05-09 | \n", "416.99 | \n", "
3170 | \n", "2020-05-16 | \n", "416.54 | \n", "
3171 | \n", "2020-05-23 | \n", "417.49 | \n", "
3172 | \n", "2020-05-30 | \n", "417.19 | \n", "
3173 rows × 2 columns
\n", "\n", " | date | \n", "CO2 | \n", "
---|
\n", " | CO2 | \n", "
---|---|
date | \n", "\n", " |
1958-03-29 | \n", "316.19 | \n", "
1958-04-05 | \n", "317.31 | \n", "
1958-04-12 | \n", "317.69 | \n", "
1958-04-19 | \n", "317.58 | \n", "
1958-04-26 | \n", "316.48 | \n", "
1958-05-03 | \n", "316.95 | \n", "
1958-05-17 | \n", "317.56 | \n", "
1958-05-24 | \n", "317.99 | \n", "
1958-07-05 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
1958-07-12 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
1958-07-19 | \n", "315.46 | \n", "
1958-07-26 | \n", "315.59 | \n", "
1958-08-02 | \n", "315.64 | \n", "
1958-08-09 | \n", "315.10 | \n", "
1958-08-16 | \n", "315.09 | \n", "
1958-08-30 | \n", "314.14 | \n", "
1958-09-06 | \n", "313.54 | \n", "
1958-11-08 | \n", "313.05 | \n", "
1958-11-15 | \n", "313.26 | \n", "
1958-11-22 | \n", "313.57 | \n", "
1958-11-29 | \n", "314.01 | \n", "
1958-12-06 | \n", "314.56 | \n", "
1958-12-13 | \n", "314.41 | \n", "
1958-12-20 | \n", "314.77 | \n", "
1958-12-27 | \n", "315.21 | \n", "
1959-01-03 | \n", "315.24 | \n", "
1959-01-10 | \n", "315.50 | \n", "
1959-01-17 | \n", "315.69 | \n", "
1959-01-24 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "
1959-01-31 | \n", "315.42 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "
2019-11-02 | \n", "409.86 | \n", "
2019-11-09 | \n", "410.15 | \n", "
2019-11-16 | \n", "410.22 | \n", "
2019-11-23 | \n", "410.48 | \n", "
2019-11-30 | \n", "410.92 | \n", "
2019-12-07 | \n", "411.27 | \n", "
2019-12-14 | \n", "411.67 | \n", "
2019-12-21 | \n", "412.30 | \n", "
2019-12-28 | \n", "412.59 | \n", "
2020-01-04 | \n", "413.19 | \n", "
2020-01-11 | \n", "413.39 | \n", "
2020-01-25 | \n", "413.36 | \n", "
2020-02-01 | \n", "413.99 | \n", "
2020-02-08 | \n", "414.83 | \n", "
2020-02-15 | \n", "413.81 | \n", "
2020-02-22 | \n", "414.17 | \n", "
2020-02-29 | \n", "413.89 | \n", "
2020-03-07 | \n", "414.00 | \n", "
2020-03-14 | \n", "414.30 | \n", "
2020-03-21 | \n", "414.62 | \n", "
2020-03-28 | \n", "415.57 | \n", "
2020-04-04 | \n", "415.61 | \n", "
2020-04-11 | \n", "416.47 | \n", "
2020-04-18 | \n", "416.60 | \n", "
2020-04-25 | \n", "415.86 | \n", "
2020-05-02 | \n", "417.20 | \n", "
2020-05-09 | \n", "416.99 | \n", "
2020-05-16 | \n", "416.54 | \n", "
2020-05-23 | \n", "417.49 | \n", "
2020-05-30 | \n", "417.19 | \n", "
3173 rows × 1 columns
\n", "