{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Concentration de CO2 dans l'atmosphère depuis 1958" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "%matplotlib inline\n", "import os\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "from scipy import fftpack,signal\n", "import numpy as np\n", "from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures\n", "from sklearn.pipeline import make_pipeline\n", "from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression\n", "from sklearn.metrics import r2_score\n", "from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Les données de l'incidence de la varicelle sont disponibles du site Web de [l'institut Scripps](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/mlo.html). Nous les récupérons sous forme d'un fichier en format CSV dont chaque ligne correspond à une semaine de la période demandée. Nous téléchargeons toujours le jeu de données complet, qui commence en 1958 et se termine avec une semaine récente.\n", "\n", "Pour nous protéger contre une éventuelle disparition ou modification du serveur du Réseau Sentinelles, nous faisons une copie locale de ce jeux de données.\n", "\n", "Il est inutile et même risquée de télécharger les données à chaque exécution, car dans le cas d'une panne nous pourrions remplacer nos données par un fichier défectueux. Pour cette raison, nous téléchargeons les données seulement si la copie locale n'existe pas." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "Data imported via the local file.\n" ] }, { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | CO2_concentration | \n", "
---|---|
Time | \n", "\n", " |
1958-03-29 | \n", "316.19 | \n", "
1958-04-05 | \n", "317.31 | \n", "
1958-04-12 | \n", "317.69 | \n", "
1958-04-19 | \n", "317.58 | \n", "
1958-04-26 | \n", "316.48 | \n", "
1958-05-03 | \n", "316.95 | \n", "
1958-05-17 | \n", "317.56 | \n", "
1958-05-24 | \n", "317.99 | \n", "
1958-07-05 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
1958-07-12 | \n", "315.85 | \n", "
1958-07-19 | \n", "315.46 | \n", "
1958-07-26 | \n", "315.59 | \n", "
1958-08-02 | \n", "315.64 | \n", "
1958-08-09 | \n", "315.10 | \n", "
1958-08-16 | \n", "315.09 | \n", "
1958-08-30 | \n", "314.14 | \n", "
1958-09-06 | \n", "313.54 | \n", "
1958-11-08 | \n", "313.05 | \n", "
1958-11-15 | \n", "313.26 | \n", "
1958-11-22 | \n", "313.57 | \n", "
1958-11-29 | \n", "314.01 | \n", "
1958-12-06 | \n", "314.56 | \n", "
1958-12-13 | \n", "314.41 | \n", "
1958-12-20 | \n", "314.77 | \n", "
1958-12-27 | \n", "315.21 | \n", "
1959-01-03 | \n", "315.24 | \n", "
1959-01-10 | \n", "315.50 | \n", "
1959-01-17 | \n", "315.69 | \n", "
1959-01-24 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "
1959-01-31 | \n", "315.42 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "
2021-02-06 | \n", "416.91 | \n", "
2021-02-13 | \n", "416.46 | \n", "
2021-02-20 | \n", "416.16 | \n", "
2021-02-27 | \n", "416.45 | \n", "
2021-03-06 | \n", "417.56 | \n", "
2021-03-13 | \n", "416.54 | \n", "
2021-03-20 | \n", "418.00 | \n", "
2021-03-27 | \n", "416.43 | \n", "
2021-04-03 | \n", "417.69 | \n", "
2021-04-10 | \n", "419.02 | \n", "
2021-04-17 | \n", "417.66 | \n", "
2021-04-24 | \n", "418.54 | \n", "
2021-05-01 | \n", "419.65 | \n", "
2021-05-08 | \n", "418.16 | \n", "
2021-05-15 | \n", "419.02 | \n", "
2021-05-22 | \n", "417.98 | \n", "
2021-05-29 | \n", "419.49 | \n", "
2021-06-05 | \n", "419.46 | \n", "
2021-06-12 | \n", "418.90 | \n", "
2021-06-19 | \n", "418.49 | \n", "
2021-06-26 | \n", "417.82 | \n", "
2021-07-03 | \n", "417.70 | \n", "
2021-07-10 | \n", "417.08 | \n", "
2021-07-17 | \n", "416.91 | \n", "
2021-07-24 | \n", "415.92 | \n", "
2021-07-31 | \n", "414.94 | \n", "
2021-08-07 | \n", "414.56 | \n", "
2021-08-14 | \n", "414.66 | \n", "
2021-08-21 | \n", "414.42 | \n", "
2021-08-28 | \n", "412.68 | \n", "
3238 rows × 1 columns
\n", "\n", " | CO2_concentration | \n", "
---|---|
Time | \n", "\n", " |
1958-03-29 | \n", "316.190000 | \n", "
1958-04-05 | \n", "317.310000 | \n", "
1958-04-12 | \n", "317.690000 | \n", "
1958-04-19 | \n", "317.580000 | \n", "
1958-04-26 | \n", "316.480000 | \n", "
1958-05-03 | \n", "316.950000 | \n", "
1958-05-10 | \n", "317.255000 | \n", "
1958-05-17 | \n", "317.560000 | \n", "
1958-05-24 | \n", "317.990000 | \n", "
1958-05-31 | \n", "317.633333 | \n", "
1958-06-07 | \n", "317.276667 | \n", "
1958-06-14 | \n", "316.920000 | \n", "
1958-06-21 | \n", "316.563333 | \n", "
1958-06-28 | \n", "316.206667 | \n", "
1958-07-05 | \n", "315.850000 | \n", "
1958-07-12 | \n", "315.850000 | \n", "
1958-07-19 | \n", "315.460000 | \n", "
1958-07-26 | \n", "315.590000 | \n", "
1958-08-02 | \n", "315.640000 | \n", "
1958-08-09 | \n", "315.100000 | \n", "
1958-08-16 | \n", "315.090000 | \n", "
1958-08-23 | \n", "314.615000 | \n", "
1958-08-30 | \n", "314.140000 | \n", "
1958-09-06 | \n", "313.540000 | \n", "
1958-09-13 | \n", "313.485556 | \n", "
1958-09-20 | \n", "313.431111 | \n", "
1958-09-27 | \n", "313.376667 | \n", "
1958-10-04 | \n", "313.322222 | \n", "
1958-10-11 | \n", "313.267778 | \n", "
1958-10-18 | \n", "313.213333 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "
2021-02-06 | \n", "416.910000 | \n", "
2021-02-13 | \n", "416.460000 | \n", "
2021-02-20 | \n", "416.160000 | \n", "
2021-02-27 | \n", "416.450000 | \n", "
2021-03-06 | \n", "417.560000 | \n", "
2021-03-13 | \n", "416.540000 | \n", "
2021-03-20 | \n", "418.000000 | \n", "
2021-03-27 | \n", "416.430000 | \n", "
2021-04-03 | \n", "417.690000 | \n", "
2021-04-10 | \n", "419.020000 | \n", "
2021-04-17 | \n", "417.660000 | \n", "
2021-04-24 | \n", "418.540000 | \n", "
2021-05-01 | \n", "419.650000 | \n", "
2021-05-08 | \n", "418.160000 | \n", "
2021-05-15 | \n", "419.020000 | \n", "
2021-05-22 | \n", "417.980000 | \n", "
2021-05-29 | \n", "419.490000 | \n", "
2021-06-05 | \n", "419.460000 | \n", "
2021-06-12 | \n", "418.900000 | \n", "
2021-06-19 | \n", "418.490000 | \n", "
2021-06-26 | \n", "417.820000 | \n", "
2021-07-03 | \n", "417.700000 | \n", "
2021-07-10 | \n", "417.080000 | \n", "
2021-07-17 | \n", "416.910000 | \n", "
2021-07-24 | \n", "415.920000 | \n", "
2021-07-31 | \n", "414.940000 | \n", "
2021-08-07 | \n", "414.560000 | \n", "
2021-08-14 | \n", "414.660000 | \n", "
2021-08-21 | \n", "414.420000 | \n", "
2021-08-28 | \n", "412.680000 | \n", "
3310 rows × 1 columns
\n", "