{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Incidence of influenza-like illness in France" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "%matplotlib inline\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import isoweek" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "The data on the incidence of influenza-like illness are available from the Web site of the [Réseau Sentinelles](http://www.sentiweb.fr/). We download them as a file in CSV format, in which each line corresponds to a week in the observation period. Only the complete dataset, starting in 1984 and ending with a recent week, is available for download." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "data_url = \"http://www.sentiweb.fr/datasets/incidence-PAY-3.csv\"" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "In order to protect us in case the Réseau Sentinelles Web server disappears or is modified, we make a local copy of this dataset that we store together with our analysis. It is unnecessary and even risky to download the data at each execution, because in case of a malfunction we might be replacing our file by a corrupted version. Therefore we download the data only if no local copy exists." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "data_file = \"syndrome-grippal.csv\"\n", "\n", "import os\n", "import urllib.request\n", "if not os.path.exists(data_file):\n", " urllib.request.urlretrieve(data_url, data_file)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "This is the documentation of the data from [the download site](https://ns.sentiweb.fr/incidence/csv-schema-v1.json):\n", "\n", "| Column name | Description |\n", "|--------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", "| `week` | ISO8601 Yearweek number as numeric (year times 100 + week nubmer) |\n", "| `indicator` | Unique identifier of the indicator, see metadata document https://www.sentiweb.fr/meta.json |\n", "| `inc` | Estimated incidence value for the time step, in the geographic level |\n", "| `inc_low` | Lower bound of the estimated incidence 95% Confidence Interval |\n", "| `inc_up` | Upper bound of the estimated incidence 95% Confidence Interval |\n", "| `inc100` | Estimated rate incidence per 100,000 inhabitants |\n", "| `inc100_low` | Lower bound of the estimated incidence 95% Confidence Interval |\n", "| `inc100_up` | Upper bound of the estimated rate incidence 95% Confidence Interval |\n", "| `geo_insee` | Identifier of the geographic area, from INSEE https://www.insee.fr |\n", "| `geo_name` | Geographic label of the area, corresponding to INSEE code. This label is not an id and is only provided for human reading |\n", "\n", "The first line of the CSV file is a comment, which we ignore with `skip=1`." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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weekindicatorincinc_lowinc_upinc100inc100_lowinc100_upgeo_inseegeo_name
02023483136047123086.0149008.0205186.0224.0FRFrance
12023473111422101110.0121734.0168152.0184.0FRFrance
220234638385375096.092610.0126113.0139.0FRFrance
320234537200363178.080828.010895.0121.0FRFrance
420234434995242813.057091.07564.086.0FRFrance
520234334498238170.051794.06858.078.0FRFrance
620234235684249277.064407.08675.097.0FRFrance
720234135835751032.065682.08877.099.0FRFrance
820234036889460069.077719.010491.0117.0FRFrance
920233937200363452.080554.010895.0121.0FRFrance
1020233836321855227.071209.09583.0107.0FRFrance
1120233734908542079.056091.07463.085.0FRFrance
1220233633824732237.044257.05849.067.0FRFrance
1320233533169526013.037377.04839.057.0FRFrance
1420233432666321057.032269.04032.048.0FRFrance
1520233331914413161.025127.02920.038.0FRFrance
1620233231464110285.018997.02215.029.0FRFrance
1720233131528610705.019867.02316.030.0FRFrance
182023303132058647.017763.02013.027.0FRFrance
192023293111227113.015131.01711.023.0FRFrance
20202328391795703.012655.0149.019.0FRFrance
21202327389995763.012235.0149.019.0FRFrance
22202326390235934.012112.0149.019.0FRFrance
232023253100906739.013441.01510.020.0FRFrance
242023243113087639.014977.01711.023.0FRFrance
2520232331430010661.017939.02217.027.0FRFrance
2620232231830313822.022784.02821.035.0FRFrance
2720232131646012188.020732.02519.031.0FRFrance
2820232031616211963.020361.02418.030.0FRFrance
2920231931690112577.021225.02518.032.0FRFrance
.................................
201019852132609619621.032571.04735.059.0FRFrance
201119852032789620885.034907.05138.064.0FRFrance
201219851934315432821.053487.07859.097.0FRFrance
201319851834055529935.051175.07455.093.0FRFrance
201419851733405324366.043740.06244.080.0FRFrance
201519851635036236451.064273.09166.0116.0FRFrance
201619851536388145538.082224.011683.0149.0FRFrance
20171985143134545114400.0154690.0244207.0281.0FRFrance
20181985133197206176080.0218332.0357319.0395.0FRFrance
20191985123245240223304.0267176.0445405.0485.0FRFrance
20201985113276205252399.0300011.0501458.0544.0FRFrance
20211985103353231326279.0380183.0640591.0689.0FRFrance
20221985093369895341109.0398681.0670618.0722.0FRFrance
20231985083389886359529.0420243.0707652.0762.0FRFrance
20241985073471852432599.0511105.0855784.0926.0FRFrance
20251985063565825518011.0613639.01026939.01113.0FRFrance
20261985053637302592795.0681809.011551074.01236.0FRFrance
20271985043424937390794.0459080.0770708.0832.0FRFrance
20281985033213901174689.0253113.0388317.0459.0FRFrance
202919850239758680949.0114223.0177147.0207.0FRFrance
203019850138548965918.0105060.0155120.0190.0FRFrance
203119845238483060602.0109058.0154110.0198.0FRFrance
2032198451310172680242.0123210.0185146.0224.0FRFrance
20331984503123680101401.0145959.0225184.0266.0FRFrance
2034198449310107381684.0120462.0184149.0219.0FRFrance
203519844837862060634.096606.0143110.0176.0FRFrance
203619844737202954274.089784.013199.0163.0FRFrance
203719844638733067686.0106974.0159123.0195.0FRFrance
20381984453135223101414.0169032.0246184.0308.0FRFrance
203919844436842220056.0116788.012537.0213.0FRFrance
\n", "

2040 rows × 10 columns

\n", "
" ], "text/plain": [ " week indicator inc inc_low inc_up inc100 inc100_low \\\n", "0 202348 3 136047 123086.0 149008.0 205 186.0 \n", "1 202347 3 111422 101110.0 121734.0 168 152.0 \n", "2 202346 3 83853 75096.0 92610.0 126 113.0 \n", "3 202345 3 72003 63178.0 80828.0 108 95.0 \n", "4 202344 3 49952 42813.0 57091.0 75 64.0 \n", "5 202343 3 44982 38170.0 51794.0 68 58.0 \n", "6 202342 3 56842 49277.0 64407.0 86 75.0 \n", "7 202341 3 58357 51032.0 65682.0 88 77.0 \n", "8 202340 3 68894 60069.0 77719.0 104 91.0 \n", "9 202339 3 72003 63452.0 80554.0 108 95.0 \n", "10 202338 3 63218 55227.0 71209.0 95 83.0 \n", "11 202337 3 49085 42079.0 56091.0 74 63.0 \n", "12 202336 3 38247 32237.0 44257.0 58 49.0 \n", "13 202335 3 31695 26013.0 37377.0 48 39.0 \n", "14 202334 3 26663 21057.0 32269.0 40 32.0 \n", "15 202333 3 19144 13161.0 25127.0 29 20.0 \n", "16 202332 3 14641 10285.0 18997.0 22 15.0 \n", "17 202331 3 15286 10705.0 19867.0 23 16.0 \n", "18 202330 3 13205 8647.0 17763.0 20 13.0 \n", "19 202329 3 11122 7113.0 15131.0 17 11.0 \n", "20 202328 3 9179 5703.0 12655.0 14 9.0 \n", "21 202327 3 8999 5763.0 12235.0 14 9.0 \n", "22 202326 3 9023 5934.0 12112.0 14 9.0 \n", "23 202325 3 10090 6739.0 13441.0 15 10.0 \n", "24 202324 3 11308 7639.0 14977.0 17 11.0 \n", "25 202323 3 14300 10661.0 17939.0 22 17.0 \n", "26 202322 3 18303 13822.0 22784.0 28 21.0 \n", "27 202321 3 16460 12188.0 20732.0 25 19.0 \n", "28 202320 3 16162 11963.0 20361.0 24 18.0 \n", "29 202319 3 16901 12577.0 21225.0 25 18.0 \n", "... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... \n", "2010 198521 3 26096 19621.0 32571.0 47 35.0 \n", "2011 198520 3 27896 20885.0 34907.0 51 38.0 \n", "2012 198519 3 43154 32821.0 53487.0 78 59.0 \n", "2013 198518 3 40555 29935.0 51175.0 74 55.0 \n", "2014 198517 3 34053 24366.0 43740.0 62 44.0 \n", "2015 198516 3 50362 36451.0 64273.0 91 66.0 \n", "2016 198515 3 63881 45538.0 82224.0 116 83.0 \n", "2017 198514 3 134545 114400.0 154690.0 244 207.0 \n", "2018 198513 3 197206 176080.0 218332.0 357 319.0 \n", "2019 198512 3 245240 223304.0 267176.0 445 405.0 \n", "2020 198511 3 276205 252399.0 300011.0 501 458.0 \n", "2021 198510 3 353231 326279.0 380183.0 640 591.0 \n", "2022 198509 3 369895 341109.0 398681.0 670 618.0 \n", "2023 198508 3 389886 359529.0 420243.0 707 652.0 \n", "2024 198507 3 471852 432599.0 511105.0 855 784.0 \n", "2025 198506 3 565825 518011.0 613639.0 1026 939.0 \n", "2026 198505 3 637302 592795.0 681809.0 1155 1074.0 \n", "2027 198504 3 424937 390794.0 459080.0 770 708.0 \n", "2028 198503 3 213901 174689.0 253113.0 388 317.0 \n", "2029 198502 3 97586 80949.0 114223.0 177 147.0 \n", "2030 198501 3 85489 65918.0 105060.0 155 120.0 \n", "2031 198452 3 84830 60602.0 109058.0 154 110.0 \n", "2032 198451 3 101726 80242.0 123210.0 185 146.0 \n", "2033 198450 3 123680 101401.0 145959.0 225 184.0 \n", "2034 198449 3 101073 81684.0 120462.0 184 149.0 \n", "2035 198448 3 78620 60634.0 96606.0 143 110.0 \n", "2036 198447 3 72029 54274.0 89784.0 131 99.0 \n", "2037 198446 3 87330 67686.0 106974.0 159 123.0 \n", "2038 198445 3 135223 101414.0 169032.0 246 184.0 \n", "2039 198444 3 68422 20056.0 116788.0 125 37.0 \n", "\n", " inc100_up geo_insee geo_name \n", "0 224.0 FR France \n", "1 184.0 FR France \n", "2 139.0 FR France \n", "3 121.0 FR France \n", "4 86.0 FR France \n", "5 78.0 FR France \n", "6 97.0 FR France \n", "7 99.0 FR France \n", "8 117.0 FR France \n", "9 121.0 FR France \n", "10 107.0 FR France \n", "11 85.0 FR France \n", "12 67.0 FR France \n", "13 57.0 FR France \n", "14 48.0 FR France \n", "15 38.0 FR France \n", "16 29.0 FR France \n", "17 30.0 FR France \n", "18 27.0 FR France \n", "19 23.0 FR France \n", "20 19.0 FR France \n", "21 19.0 FR France \n", "22 19.0 FR France \n", "23 20.0 FR France \n", "24 23.0 FR France \n", "25 27.0 FR France \n", "26 35.0 FR France \n", "27 31.0 FR France \n", "28 30.0 FR France \n", "29 32.0 FR France \n", "... ... ... ... \n", "2010 59.0 FR France \n", "2011 64.0 FR France \n", "2012 97.0 FR France \n", "2013 93.0 FR France \n", "2014 80.0 FR France \n", "2015 116.0 FR France \n", "2016 149.0 FR France \n", "2017 281.0 FR France \n", "2018 395.0 FR France \n", "2019 485.0 FR France \n", "2020 544.0 FR France \n", "2021 689.0 FR France \n", "2022 722.0 FR France \n", "2023 762.0 FR France \n", "2024 926.0 FR France \n", "2025 1113.0 FR France \n", "2026 1236.0 FR France \n", "2027 832.0 FR France \n", "2028 459.0 FR France \n", "2029 207.0 FR France \n", "2030 190.0 FR France \n", "2031 198.0 FR France \n", "2032 224.0 FR France \n", "2033 266.0 FR France \n", "2034 219.0 FR France \n", "2035 176.0 FR France \n", "2036 163.0 FR France \n", "2037 195.0 FR France \n", "2038 308.0 FR France \n", "2039 213.0 FR France \n", "\n", "[2040 rows x 10 columns]" ] }, "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "raw_data = pd.read_csv(data_file, skiprows=1)\n", "raw_data" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Are there missing data points? Yes, week 19 of year 1989 does not have any observed values." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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weekindicatorincinc_lowinc_upinc100inc100_lowinc100_upgeo_inseegeo_name
18031989193-NaNNaN-NaNNaNFRFrance
\n", "
" ], "text/plain": [ " week indicator inc inc_low inc_up inc100 inc100_low inc100_up \\\n", "1803 198919 3 - NaN NaN - NaN NaN \n", "\n", " geo_insee geo_name \n", "1803 FR France " ] }, "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "raw_data[raw_data.isnull().any(axis=1)]" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "We delete this point, which does not have big consequence for our rather simple analysis." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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weekindicatorincinc_lowinc_upinc100inc100_lowinc100_upgeo_inseegeo_name
02023483136047123086.0149008.0205186.0224.0FRFrance
12023473111422101110.0121734.0168152.0184.0FRFrance
220234638385375096.092610.0126113.0139.0FRFrance
320234537200363178.080828.010895.0121.0FRFrance
420234434995242813.057091.07564.086.0FRFrance
520234334498238170.051794.06858.078.0FRFrance
620234235684249277.064407.08675.097.0FRFrance
720234135835751032.065682.08877.099.0FRFrance
820234036889460069.077719.010491.0117.0FRFrance
920233937200363452.080554.010895.0121.0FRFrance
1020233836321855227.071209.09583.0107.0FRFrance
1120233734908542079.056091.07463.085.0FRFrance
1220233633824732237.044257.05849.067.0FRFrance
1320233533169526013.037377.04839.057.0FRFrance
1420233432666321057.032269.04032.048.0FRFrance
1520233331914413161.025127.02920.038.0FRFrance
1620233231464110285.018997.02215.029.0FRFrance
1720233131528610705.019867.02316.030.0FRFrance
182023303132058647.017763.02013.027.0FRFrance
192023293111227113.015131.01711.023.0FRFrance
20202328391795703.012655.0149.019.0FRFrance
21202327389995763.012235.0149.019.0FRFrance
22202326390235934.012112.0149.019.0FRFrance
232023253100906739.013441.01510.020.0FRFrance
242023243113087639.014977.01711.023.0FRFrance
2520232331430010661.017939.02217.027.0FRFrance
2620232231830313822.022784.02821.035.0FRFrance
2720232131646012188.020732.02519.031.0FRFrance
2820232031616211963.020361.02418.030.0FRFrance
2920231931690112577.021225.02518.032.0FRFrance
.................................
201019852132609619621.032571.04735.059.0FRFrance
201119852032789620885.034907.05138.064.0FRFrance
201219851934315432821.053487.07859.097.0FRFrance
201319851834055529935.051175.07455.093.0FRFrance
201419851733405324366.043740.06244.080.0FRFrance
201519851635036236451.064273.09166.0116.0FRFrance
201619851536388145538.082224.011683.0149.0FRFrance
20171985143134545114400.0154690.0244207.0281.0FRFrance
20181985133197206176080.0218332.0357319.0395.0FRFrance
20191985123245240223304.0267176.0445405.0485.0FRFrance
20201985113276205252399.0300011.0501458.0544.0FRFrance
20211985103353231326279.0380183.0640591.0689.0FRFrance
20221985093369895341109.0398681.0670618.0722.0FRFrance
20231985083389886359529.0420243.0707652.0762.0FRFrance
20241985073471852432599.0511105.0855784.0926.0FRFrance
20251985063565825518011.0613639.01026939.01113.0FRFrance
20261985053637302592795.0681809.011551074.01236.0FRFrance
20271985043424937390794.0459080.0770708.0832.0FRFrance
20281985033213901174689.0253113.0388317.0459.0FRFrance
202919850239758680949.0114223.0177147.0207.0FRFrance
203019850138548965918.0105060.0155120.0190.0FRFrance
203119845238483060602.0109058.0154110.0198.0FRFrance
2032198451310172680242.0123210.0185146.0224.0FRFrance
20331984503123680101401.0145959.0225184.0266.0FRFrance
2034198449310107381684.0120462.0184149.0219.0FRFrance
203519844837862060634.096606.0143110.0176.0FRFrance
203619844737202954274.089784.013199.0163.0FRFrance
203719844638733067686.0106974.0159123.0195.0FRFrance
20381984453135223101414.0169032.0246184.0308.0FRFrance
203919844436842220056.0116788.012537.0213.0FRFrance
\n", "

2039 rows × 10 columns

\n", "
" ], "text/plain": [ " week indicator inc inc_low inc_up inc100 inc100_low \\\n", "0 202348 3 136047 123086.0 149008.0 205 186.0 \n", "1 202347 3 111422 101110.0 121734.0 168 152.0 \n", "2 202346 3 83853 75096.0 92610.0 126 113.0 \n", "3 202345 3 72003 63178.0 80828.0 108 95.0 \n", "4 202344 3 49952 42813.0 57091.0 75 64.0 \n", "5 202343 3 44982 38170.0 51794.0 68 58.0 \n", "6 202342 3 56842 49277.0 64407.0 86 75.0 \n", "7 202341 3 58357 51032.0 65682.0 88 77.0 \n", "8 202340 3 68894 60069.0 77719.0 104 91.0 \n", "9 202339 3 72003 63452.0 80554.0 108 95.0 \n", "10 202338 3 63218 55227.0 71209.0 95 83.0 \n", "11 202337 3 49085 42079.0 56091.0 74 63.0 \n", "12 202336 3 38247 32237.0 44257.0 58 49.0 \n", "13 202335 3 31695 26013.0 37377.0 48 39.0 \n", "14 202334 3 26663 21057.0 32269.0 40 32.0 \n", "15 202333 3 19144 13161.0 25127.0 29 20.0 \n", "16 202332 3 14641 10285.0 18997.0 22 15.0 \n", "17 202331 3 15286 10705.0 19867.0 23 16.0 \n", "18 202330 3 13205 8647.0 17763.0 20 13.0 \n", "19 202329 3 11122 7113.0 15131.0 17 11.0 \n", "20 202328 3 9179 5703.0 12655.0 14 9.0 \n", "21 202327 3 8999 5763.0 12235.0 14 9.0 \n", "22 202326 3 9023 5934.0 12112.0 14 9.0 \n", "23 202325 3 10090 6739.0 13441.0 15 10.0 \n", "24 202324 3 11308 7639.0 14977.0 17 11.0 \n", "25 202323 3 14300 10661.0 17939.0 22 17.0 \n", "26 202322 3 18303 13822.0 22784.0 28 21.0 \n", "27 202321 3 16460 12188.0 20732.0 25 19.0 \n", "28 202320 3 16162 11963.0 20361.0 24 18.0 \n", "29 202319 3 16901 12577.0 21225.0 25 18.0 \n", "... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... \n", "2010 198521 3 26096 19621.0 32571.0 47 35.0 \n", "2011 198520 3 27896 20885.0 34907.0 51 38.0 \n", "2012 198519 3 43154 32821.0 53487.0 78 59.0 \n", "2013 198518 3 40555 29935.0 51175.0 74 55.0 \n", "2014 198517 3 34053 24366.0 43740.0 62 44.0 \n", "2015 198516 3 50362 36451.0 64273.0 91 66.0 \n", "2016 198515 3 63881 45538.0 82224.0 116 83.0 \n", "2017 198514 3 134545 114400.0 154690.0 244 207.0 \n", "2018 198513 3 197206 176080.0 218332.0 357 319.0 \n", "2019 198512 3 245240 223304.0 267176.0 445 405.0 \n", "2020 198511 3 276205 252399.0 300011.0 501 458.0 \n", "2021 198510 3 353231 326279.0 380183.0 640 591.0 \n", "2022 198509 3 369895 341109.0 398681.0 670 618.0 \n", "2023 198508 3 389886 359529.0 420243.0 707 652.0 \n", "2024 198507 3 471852 432599.0 511105.0 855 784.0 \n", "2025 198506 3 565825 518011.0 613639.0 1026 939.0 \n", "2026 198505 3 637302 592795.0 681809.0 1155 1074.0 \n", "2027 198504 3 424937 390794.0 459080.0 770 708.0 \n", "2028 198503 3 213901 174689.0 253113.0 388 317.0 \n", "2029 198502 3 97586 80949.0 114223.0 177 147.0 \n", "2030 198501 3 85489 65918.0 105060.0 155 120.0 \n", "2031 198452 3 84830 60602.0 109058.0 154 110.0 \n", "2032 198451 3 101726 80242.0 123210.0 185 146.0 \n", "2033 198450 3 123680 101401.0 145959.0 225 184.0 \n", "2034 198449 3 101073 81684.0 120462.0 184 149.0 \n", "2035 198448 3 78620 60634.0 96606.0 143 110.0 \n", "2036 198447 3 72029 54274.0 89784.0 131 99.0 \n", "2037 198446 3 87330 67686.0 106974.0 159 123.0 \n", "2038 198445 3 135223 101414.0 169032.0 246 184.0 \n", "2039 198444 3 68422 20056.0 116788.0 125 37.0 \n", "\n", " inc100_up geo_insee geo_name \n", "0 224.0 FR France \n", "1 184.0 FR France \n", "2 139.0 FR France \n", "3 121.0 FR France \n", "4 86.0 FR France \n", "5 78.0 FR France \n", "6 97.0 FR France \n", "7 99.0 FR France \n", "8 117.0 FR France \n", "9 121.0 FR France \n", "10 107.0 FR France \n", "11 85.0 FR France \n", "12 67.0 FR France \n", "13 57.0 FR France \n", "14 48.0 FR France \n", "15 38.0 FR France \n", "16 29.0 FR France \n", "17 30.0 FR France \n", "18 27.0 FR France \n", "19 23.0 FR France \n", "20 19.0 FR France \n", "21 19.0 FR France \n", "22 19.0 FR France \n", "23 20.0 FR France \n", "24 23.0 FR France \n", "25 27.0 FR France \n", "26 35.0 FR France \n", "27 31.0 FR France \n", "28 30.0 FR France \n", "29 32.0 FR France \n", "... ... ... ... \n", "2010 59.0 FR France \n", "2011 64.0 FR France \n", "2012 97.0 FR France \n", "2013 93.0 FR France \n", "2014 80.0 FR France \n", "2015 116.0 FR France \n", "2016 149.0 FR France \n", "2017 281.0 FR France \n", "2018 395.0 FR France \n", "2019 485.0 FR France \n", "2020 544.0 FR France \n", "2021 689.0 FR France \n", "2022 722.0 FR France \n", "2023 762.0 FR France \n", "2024 926.0 FR France \n", "2025 1113.0 FR France \n", "2026 1236.0 FR France \n", "2027 832.0 FR France \n", "2028 459.0 FR France \n", "2029 207.0 FR France \n", "2030 190.0 FR France \n", "2031 198.0 FR France \n", "2032 224.0 FR France \n", "2033 266.0 FR France \n", "2034 219.0 FR France \n", "2035 176.0 FR France \n", "2036 163.0 FR France \n", "2037 195.0 FR France \n", "2038 308.0 FR France \n", "2039 213.0 FR France \n", "\n", "[2039 rows x 10 columns]" ] }, "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "data = raw_data.dropna().copy()\n", "data" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Our dataset uses an uncommon encoding; the week number is attached\n", "to the year number, leaving the impression of a six-digit integer.\n", "That is how Pandas interprets it.\n", "\n", "A second problem is that Pandas does not know about week numbers.\n", "It needs to be given the dates of the beginning and end of the week.\n", "We use the library `isoweek` for that.\n", "\n", "Since the conversion is a bit lengthy, we write a small Python \n", "function for doing it. Then we apply it to all points in our dataset. \n", "The results go into a new column 'period'." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "def convert_week(year_and_week_int):\n", " year_and_week_str = str(year_and_week_int)\n", " year = int(year_and_week_str[:4])\n", " week = int(year_and_week_str[4:])\n", " w = isoweek.Week(year, week)\n", " return pd.Period(w.day(0), 'W')\n", "\n", "data['period'] = [convert_week(yw) for yw in data['week']]" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "There are two more small changes to make.\n", "\n", "First, we define the observation periods as the new index of\n", "our dataset. That turns it into a time series, which will be\n", "convenient later on.\n", "\n", "Second, we sort the points chronologically." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "sorted_data = data.set_index('period').sort_index()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "We check the consistency of the data. Between the end of a period and\n", "the beginning of the next one, the difference should be zero, or very small.\n", "We tolerate an error of one second.\n", "\n", "This is OK except for one pair of consecutive periods between which\n", "a whole week is missing.\n", "\n", "We recognize the dates: it's the week without observations that we\n", "have deleted earlier!" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "1989-05-01/1989-05-07 1989-05-15/1989-05-21\n" ] } ], "source": [ "periods = sorted_data.index\n", "for p1, p2 in zip(periods[:-1], periods[1:]):\n", " delta = p2.to_timestamp() - p1.end_time\n", " if delta > pd.Timedelta('1s'):\n", " print(p1, p2)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "A first look at the data!" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "ename": "TypeError", "evalue": "Empty 'DataFrame': no numeric data to 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We\n", "label this period as year $N+1$ because the peak is always located in\n", "year $N+1$. The very low incidence in summer ensures that the arbitrariness\n", "of the choice of reference period has no impact on our conclusions.\n", "\n", "Our task is a bit complicated by the fact that a year does not have an\n", "integer number of weeks. Therefore we modify our reference period a bit:\n", "instead of August 1st, we use the first day of the week containing August 1st.\n", "\n", "A final detail: the dataset starts in October 1984, the first peak is thus\n", "incomplete, We start the analysis with the first full peak." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "collapsed": true }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "first_august_week = [pd.Period(pd.Timestamp(y, 8, 1), 'W')\n", " for y in range(1985,\n", " sorted_data.index[-1].year)]" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Starting from this list of weeks that contain August 1st, we obtain intervals of approximately one year as the periods between two adjacent weeks in this list. We compute the sums of weekly incidences for all these periods.\n", "\n", "We also check that our periods contain between 51 and 52 weeks, as a safeguard against potential mistakes in our code." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "collapsed": true }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "year = []\n", "yearly_incidence = []\n", "for week1, week2 in zip(first_august_week[:-1],\n", " first_august_week[1:]):\n", " one_year = sorted_data['inc'][week1:week2-1]\n", " assert abs(len(one_year)-52) < 2\n", " yearly_incidence.append(one_year.sum())\n", " year.append(week2.year)\n", "yearly_incidence = pd.Series(data=yearly_incidence, index=year)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "And here are the annual incidences." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "yearly_incidence.plot(style='*')" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "A sorted list makes it easier to find the highest values (at the end)." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "yearly_incidence.sort_values()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Finally, a histogram clearly shows the few very strong epidemics, which affect about 10% of the French population,\n", "but are rare: there were three of them in the course of 35 years. The typical epidemic affects only half as many people." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "yearly_incidence.hist(xrot=20)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "collapsed": true }, "outputs": [], "source": [] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { "display_name": "Python 3", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, "language_info": { "codemirror_mode": { "name": "ipython", "version": 3 }, "file_extension": ".py", "mimetype": "text/x-python", "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", "version": "3.6.4" } }, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 1 }