Commit 215b9255 authored by Jamal KHAN's avatar Jamal KHAN

Module 2 Exercise 5

parent 53396f25
......@@ -42,30 +42,30 @@ data
#+RESULTS:
#+begin_example
Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction
0 4/12/81 6 66 50 0
1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1
2 3/22/82 6 69 50 0
3 11/11/82 6 68 50 0
4 4/04/83 6 67 50 0
5 6/18/82 6 72 50 0
6 8/30/83 6 73 100 0
7 11/28/83 6 70 100 0
8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1
9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1
10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1
11 10/05/84 6 78 200 0
12 11/08/84 6 67 200 0
13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2
14 4/12/85 6 67 200 0
15 4/29/85 6 75 200 0
16 6/17/85 6 70 200 0
17 7/29/85 6 81 200 0
18 8/27/85 6 76 200 0
19 10/03/85 6 79 200 0
20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2
21 11/26/85 6 76 200 0
22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1
Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction
0 4/12/81 6 66 50 0
1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1
2 3/22/82 6 69 50 0
3 11/11/82 6 68 50 0
4 4/04/83 6 67 50 0
5 6/18/82 6 72 50 0
6 8/30/83 6 73 100 0
7 11/28/83 6 70 100 0
8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1
9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1
10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1
11 10/05/84 6 78 200 0
12 11/08/84 6 67 200 0
13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2
14 4/12/85 6 67 200 0
15 4/29/85 6 75 200 0
16 6/17/85 6 70 200 0
17 7/29/85 6 81 200 0
18 8/27/85 6 76 200 0
19 10/03/85 6 79 200 0
20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2
21 11/26/85 6 76 200 0
22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1
#+end_example
The data set shows us the date of each test, the number of O-rings
......@@ -74,28 +74,43 @@ temperature (in Fahrenheit) and pressure (in psi), and finally the
number of identified malfunctions.
* Graphical inspection
Flights without incidents do not provide any information
on the influence of temperature or pressure on malfunction.
We thus focus on the experiments in which at least one O-ring was defective.
Flights without incidents do not provide any information on the influence of temperature or pressure on malfunction. We thus focus on the experiments in which at least one O-ring was defective.
(Note: this approximation is not correct, as flights without incidents does provide information regarding the failure probability).
#+begin_src python :results value :session *python* :exports both
data = data[data.Malfunction>0]
#data = data[data.Malfunction>0]
data
#+end_src
#+RESULTS:
: Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction
: 1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1
: 8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1
: 9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1
: 10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1
: 13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2
: 20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2
: 22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1
We have a high temperature variability but
the pressure is almost always 200, which should
simplify the analysis.
#+begin_example
Date Count Temperature Pressure Malfunction
0 4/12/81 6 66 50 0
1 11/12/81 6 70 50 1
2 3/22/82 6 69 50 0
3 11/11/82 6 68 50 0
4 4/04/83 6 67 50 0
5 6/18/82 6 72 50 0
6 8/30/83 6 73 100 0
7 11/28/83 6 70 100 0
8 2/03/84 6 57 200 1
9 4/06/84 6 63 200 1
10 8/30/84 6 70 200 1
11 10/05/84 6 78 200 0
12 11/08/84 6 67 200 0
13 1/24/85 6 53 200 2
14 4/12/85 6 67 200 0
15 4/29/85 6 75 200 0
16 6/17/85 6 70 200 0
17 7/29/85 6 81 200 0
18 8/27/85 6 76 200 0
19 10/03/85 6 79 200 0
20 10/30/85 6 75 200 2
21 11/26/85 6 76 200 0
22 1/12/86 6 58 200 1
#+end_example
We have a high temperature variability but the pressure is almost always 200, which should simplify the analysis.
How does the frequency of failure vary with temperature?
#+begin_src python :results output file :var matplot_lib_filename="freq_temp_python.png" :exports both :session *python*
......@@ -141,21 +156,22 @@ logmodel.summary()
#+RESULTS:
#+begin_example
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 7
Model: GLM Df Residuals: 5
Model Family: Binomial Df Model: 1
Link Function: logit Scale: 1.0
Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -3.6370
Date: Fri, 20 Jul 2018 Deviance: 3.3763
Time: 16:56:08 Pearson chi2: 0.236
No. Iterations: 5
Generalized Linear Model Regression Results
===============================================================================
Dep. Variable: Frequency No. Observations: 23
Model: GLM Df Residuals: 21
Model Family: Binomial Df Model: 1
Link Function: logit Scale: 1.0000
Method: IRLS Log-Likelihood: -3.9210
Date: mer., 16 sept. 2020 Deviance: 3.0144
Time: 00:01:54 Pearson chi2: 5.00
No. Iterations: 6
Covariance Type: nonrobust
===============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intercept -1.3895 7.828 -0.178 0.859 -16.732 13.953
Temperature 0.0014 0.122 0.012 0.991 -0.238 0.240
Intercept 5.0850 7.477 0.680 0.496 -9.570 19.740
Temperature -0.1156 0.115 -1.004 0.316 -0.341 0.110
===============================================================================
#+end_example
......
module2/exo5/freq_temp_python.png

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module2/exo5/proba_estimate_python.png

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