"analyse et de regarder ce jeu de données sous tous les angles afin\n",
"d'expliquer ce qui ne va pas."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
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"source": [
"## Critical Review of the Challenger O-ring Analysis\n",
"\n",
"After reproducing the historical analysis, three reasoning errors became clear:\n",
"\n",
"1. **Key data were excluded** — the engineers only considered flights that showed O-ring damage, ignoring those with no damage. This introduced selection bias.\n",
"2. **Extrapolation beyond available data** — the Challenger launch temperature (~0 °C) was far below any recorded temperature in the dataset, so the predicted risk was unreliable.\n",
"3. **Uncertainty ignored** — the logistic regression results were interpreted without accounting for uncertainty (no confidence intervals), creating a false sense of precision.\n",
"\n",
"By including all flights, plotting the full dataset, and visualizing uncertainty bands, we can see that the risk of failure increases sharply at lower temperatures — meaning that the Challenger launch conditions were clearly unsafe.\n"
