Commit cfee0535 authored by Arnaud Legrand's avatar Arnaud Legrand

Fix minor typos

parent c14a5a87
#+TITLE: Analysis of the risk of failure of the toric joints of the space shuttle Challenger #+TITLE: Analysis of the risk of failure of the O-rings of the space shuttle Challenger
#+AUTHOR: Konrad Hinsen, Arnaud Legrand, Christophe Pouzat #+AUTHOR: Konrad Hinsen, Arnaud Legrand, Christophe Pouzat
#+DATE: Juin 2018 #+DATE: Juin 2018
#+LANGUAGE: en #+LANGUAGE: en
...@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ ...@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
#+LATEX_HEADER: \usepackage{svg} #+LATEX_HEADER: \usepackage{svg}
#+LATEX_HEADER: \let\epsilon=\varepsilon #+LATEX_HEADER: \let\epsilon=\varepsilon
*Forword:* The explanations given in this document about the context *Foreword:* The explanations given in this document about the context
of the study have been taken from the excellent book /Visual of the study have been taken from the excellent book /Visual
Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative/ by Edward Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative/ by Edward
R. Tufte, published in 1997 by /Graphics Press/ and re-edited in 2005, R. Tufte, published in 1997 by /Graphics Press/ and re-edited in 2005,
...@@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ file:o-ring.png ...@@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ file:o-ring.png
# https://i0.wp.com/www.kylehailey.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Screen-Shot-2013-12-30-at-12.05.04-PM-1024x679.png?zoom=2&resize=594%2C393 # https://i0.wp.com/www.kylehailey.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Screen-Shot-2013-12-30-at-12.05.04-PM-1024x679.png?zoom=2&resize=594%2C393
What is most astonishing is that the precise cause of the accident had What is most astonishing is that the precise cause of the accident had
been intensely debated several days before and ws still under been intensely debated several days before and was still under
discussion the day before the launch, during a three-hour discussion the day before the launch, during a three-hour
teleconference involving engineers from Morton Thiokol (the supplier teleconference involving engineers from Morton Thiokol (the supplier
of the engines) and from NASA. Whereas the immediate cause of the of the engines) and from NASA. Whereas the immediate cause of the
accident, the failure of the O-ringe, was quickly identified, the accident, the failure of the O-ring, was quickly identified, the
underlying causes of the disaster have regularly served as a case underlying causes of the disaster have regularly served as a case
study, be it in management training (work organisation, decision study, be it in management training (work organisation, decision
taking in spite of political pressure, communication problems), taking in spite of political pressure, communication problems),
...@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ sociology (history, bureaucracy, conforming to organisational norms). ...@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ sociology (history, bureaucracy, conforming to organisational norms).
In the study that we propose, we are mainly concerned with the In the study that we propose, we are mainly concerned with the
statistical aspect, which however is only one piece of the puzzle. We statistical aspect, which however is only one piece of the puzzle. We
invite you to read the documentes cited in the foreword for more invite you to read the documents cited in the foreword for more
information. The following study takes up a part of the analyses that information. The following study takes up a part of the analyses that
were done that night with the goal of evaluating the potential impact were done that night with the goal of evaluating the potential impact
of temperature and air pressure on the probability of O-ring of temperature and air pressure on the probability of O-ring
...@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ malfunction. The starting point is experimental results obtained by ...@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ malfunction. The starting point is experimental results obtained by
NASA engineers over the six years preceding the Challenger launch. NASA engineers over the six years preceding the Challenger launch.
In the directory ~module2/exo5/~ of your GitLab workspace, you will In the directory ~module2/exo5/~ of your GitLab workspace, you will
find the original data as welas an analysis for each of the paths we find the original data as well as an analysis for each of the paths we
offer. This analysis consists of four steps: offer. This analysis consists of four steps:
1. Loading the data 1. Loading the data
...@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ will present the analysis in R but Python code would look quite ...@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ will present the analysis in R but Python code would look quite
similar. The data are stored in a data frame that is summarized as: similar. The data are stored in a data frame that is summarized as:
#+begin_src R :results output :session *R* :exports none #+begin_src R :results output :session *R* :exports none
library(Hmisc) # pour calculer un intervalle de confiance sur des données binomiales library(Hmisc) # to compute a confidence interval on binomial data
library(ggplot2) library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr) library(dplyr)
set.seed(42) set.seed(42)
...@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ greater than 1) for somewhat extreme age values (young or old). The ...@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ greater than 1) for somewhat extreme age values (young or old). The
reason is simply that a linear regression implies the hypothesis reason is simply that a linear regression implies the hypothesis
$\textsf{Ill} = \alpha.\textsf{Age} + \beta + \epsilon$, where $\textsf{Ill} = \alpha.\textsf{Age} + \beta + \epsilon$, where
$\alpha$ and $\beta$ are real numbers and $\epsilon$ is a noise (a $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are real numbers and $\epsilon$ is a noise (a
random variable of mean zero), wihh $\alpha$ and $\beta$ estimated random variable of mean zero), with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ estimated
from the data. This doesn't make sense for estimating a probability, from the data. This doesn't make sense for estimating a probability,
and therefore [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression][logistic regression]] is a better choice: and therefore [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression][logistic regression]] is a better choice:
...@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ true curve to lie somewhere in the grey zone. ...@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ true curve to lie somewhere in the grey zone.
In this model, the assumption is $P[\textsf{Ill}] = \pi(\textsf{Age})$ In this model, the assumption is $P[\textsf{Ill}] = \pi(\textsf{Age})$
with $\displaystyle\pi(x)=\frac{e^{\alpha.x + \beta}}{1+e^{\alpha.x + with $\displaystyle\pi(x)=\frac{e^{\alpha.x + \beta}}{1+e^{\alpha.x +
\beta}}$. This at first look strange formule has the nice property of \beta}}$. This at first look strange formulae has the nice property of
always yielding a value between zero and one, and to approach 0 and 1 always yielding a value between zero and one, and to approach 0 and 1
rapidly as the age tends to $-\infty$ or $+\infty$, but this is not rapidly as the age tends to $-\infty$ or $+\infty$, but this is not
the only motivation for this choice. the only motivation for this choice.
...@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ In summary, when we have event-like data (binary) and we wish to ...@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ In summary, when we have event-like data (binary) and we wish to
estimate the influence of a parameter on the probability of the event estimate the influence of a parameter on the probability of the event
occurring (illness, failure, ...), the most natural and simple model occurring (illness, failure, ...), the most natural and simple model
is logistic regression. Note that even if we restrain ourselves to a is logistic regression. Note that even if we restrain ourselves to a
small part of the dta, e.g. only patients less than 50 years old, it small part of the data, e.g., only patients less than 50 years old, it
is possible to get a reasonable estimate, even though, as is to be is possible to get a reasonable estimate, even though, as is to be
expected, the uncertainty grows rapidly. expected, the uncertainty grows rapidly.
......
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