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9b01737421a268a54ae68902c9bdbf26
mooc-rr-ressources
Commits
cfee0535
Commit
cfee0535
authored
Oct 02, 2018
by
Arnaud Legrand
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cfee0535
#+
TITLE
:
Analysis
of
the
risk
of
failure
of
the
toric
joint
s
of
the
space
shuttle
Challenger
#+
TITLE
:
Analysis
of
the
risk
of
failure
of
the
O
-
ring
s
of
the
space
shuttle
Challenger
#+
AUTHOR
:
Konrad
Hinsen
,
Arnaud
Legrand
,
Christophe
Pouzat
#+
AUTHOR
:
Konrad
Hinsen
,
Arnaud
Legrand
,
Christophe
Pouzat
#+
DATE
:
Juin
2018
#+
DATE
:
Juin
2018
#+
LANGUAGE
:
en
#+
LANGUAGE
:
en
...
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
...
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
#+
LATEX_HEADER
:
\
usepackage
{
svg
}
#+
LATEX_HEADER
:
\
usepackage
{
svg
}
#+
LATEX_HEADER
:
\
let
\
epsilon
=\
varepsilon
#+
LATEX_HEADER
:
\
let
\
epsilon
=\
varepsilon
*
Forword
:*
The
explanations
given
in
this
document
about
the
context
*
For
e
word
:*
The
explanations
given
in
this
document
about
the
context
of
the
study
have
been
taken
from
the
excellent
book
/
Visual
of
the
study
have
been
taken
from
the
excellent
book
/
Visual
Explanations
:
Images
and
Quantities
,
Evidence
and
Narrative
/
by
Edward
Explanations
:
Images
and
Quantities
,
Evidence
and
Narrative
/
by
Edward
R
.
Tufte
,
published
in
1997
by
/
Graphics
Press
/
and
re
-
edited
in
2005
,
R
.
Tufte
,
published
in
1997
by
/
Graphics
Press
/
and
re
-
edited
in
2005
,
...
@@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ file:o-ring.png
...
@@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ file:o-ring.png
#
https
://
i0
.
wp
.
com
/
www
.
kylehailey
.
com
/
wp
-
content
/
uploads
/
2014
/
01
/
Screen
-
Shot
-
2013
-
12
-
30
-
at
-
12.05.04
-
PM
-
1024
x679
.
png
?
zoom
=
2
&
resize
=
594
%
2
C393
#
https
://
i0
.
wp
.
com
/
www
.
kylehailey
.
com
/
wp
-
content
/
uploads
/
2014
/
01
/
Screen
-
Shot
-
2013
-
12
-
30
-
at
-
12.05.04
-
PM
-
1024
x679
.
png
?
zoom
=
2
&
resize
=
594
%
2
C393
What
is
most
astonishing
is
that
the
precise
cause
of
the
accident
had
What
is
most
astonishing
is
that
the
precise
cause
of
the
accident
had
been
intensely
debated
several
days
before
and
ws
still
under
been
intensely
debated
several
days
before
and
w
a
s
still
under
discussion
the
day
before
the
launch
,
during
a
three
-
hour
discussion
the
day
before
the
launch
,
during
a
three
-
hour
teleconference
involving
engineers
from
Morton
Thiokol
(
the
supplier
teleconference
involving
engineers
from
Morton
Thiokol
(
the
supplier
of
the
engines
)
and
from
NASA
.
Whereas
the
immediate
cause
of
the
of
the
engines
)
and
from
NASA
.
Whereas
the
immediate
cause
of
the
accident
,
the
failure
of
the
O
-
ring
e
,
was
quickly
identified
,
the
accident
,
the
failure
of
the
O
-
ring
,
was
quickly
identified
,
the
underlying
causes
of
the
disaster
have
regularly
served
as
a
case
underlying
causes
of
the
disaster
have
regularly
served
as
a
case
study
,
be
it
in
management
training
(
work
organisation
,
decision
study
,
be
it
in
management
training
(
work
organisation
,
decision
taking
in
spite
of
political
pressure
,
communication
problems
),
taking
in
spite
of
political
pressure
,
communication
problems
),
...
@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ sociology (history, bureaucracy, conforming to organisational norms).
...
@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ sociology (history, bureaucracy, conforming to organisational norms).
In
the
study
that
we
propose
,
we
are
mainly
concerned
with
the
In
the
study
that
we
propose
,
we
are
mainly
concerned
with
the
statistical
aspect
,
which
however
is
only
one
piece
of
the
puzzle
.
We
statistical
aspect
,
which
however
is
only
one
piece
of
the
puzzle
.
We
invite
you
to
read
the
document
e
s
cited
in
the
foreword
for
more
invite
you
to
read
the
documents
cited
in
the
foreword
for
more
information
.
The
following
study
takes
up
a
part
of
the
analyses
that
information
.
The
following
study
takes
up
a
part
of
the
analyses
that
were
done
that
night
with
the
goal
of
evaluating
the
potential
impact
were
done
that
night
with
the
goal
of
evaluating
the
potential
impact
of
temperature
and
air
pressure
on
the
probability
of
O
-
ring
of
temperature
and
air
pressure
on
the
probability
of
O
-
ring
...
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ malfunction. The starting point is experimental results obtained by
...
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ malfunction. The starting point is experimental results obtained by
NASA
engineers
over
the
six
years
preceding
the
Challenger
launch
.
NASA
engineers
over
the
six
years
preceding
the
Challenger
launch
.
In
the
directory
~
module2
/
exo5
/~
of
your
GitLab
workspace
,
you
will
In
the
directory
~
module2
/
exo5
/~
of
your
GitLab
workspace
,
you
will
find
the
original
data
as
welas
an
analysis
for
each
of
the
paths
we
find
the
original
data
as
wel
l
as
an
analysis
for
each
of
the
paths
we
offer
.
This
analysis
consists
of
four
steps
:
offer
.
This
analysis
consists
of
four
steps
:
1.
Loading
the
data
1.
Loading
the
data
...
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ will present the analysis in R but Python code would look quite
...
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ will present the analysis in R but Python code would look quite
similar
.
The
data
are
stored
in
a
data
frame
that
is
summarized
as
:
similar
.
The
data
are
stored
in
a
data
frame
that
is
summarized
as
:
#+
begin_src
R
:
results
output
:
session
*
R
*
:
exports
none
#+
begin_src
R
:
results
output
:
session
*
R
*
:
exports
none
library
(
Hmisc
)
#
pour
calculer
un
intervalle
de
confiance
sur
des
donn
é
es
binomiales
library
(
Hmisc
)
#
to
compute
a
confidence
interval
on
binomial
data
library
(
ggplot2
)
library
(
ggplot2
)
library
(
dplyr
)
library
(
dplyr
)
set
.
seed
(
42
)
set
.
seed
(
42
)
...
@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ greater than 1) for somewhat extreme age values (young or old). The
...
@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ greater than 1) for somewhat extreme age values (young or old). The
reason
is
simply
that
a
linear
regression
implies
the
hypothesis
reason
is
simply
that
a
linear
regression
implies
the
hypothesis
$\
textsf
{
Ill
}
=
\
alpha
.\
textsf
{
Age
}
+
\
beta
+
\
epsilon
$,
where
$\
textsf
{
Ill
}
=
\
alpha
.\
textsf
{
Age
}
+
\
beta
+
\
epsilon
$,
where
$\
alpha
$
and
$\
beta
$
are
real
numbers
and
$\
epsilon
$
is
a
noise
(
a
$\
alpha
$
and
$\
beta
$
are
real
numbers
and
$\
epsilon
$
is
a
noise
(
a
random
variable
of
mean
zero
),
wi
h
h
$\
alpha
$
and
$\
beta
$
estimated
random
variable
of
mean
zero
),
wi
t
h
$\
alpha
$
and
$\
beta
$
estimated
from
the
data
.
This
doesn
't make sense for estimating a probability,
from
the
data
.
This
doesn
't make sense for estimating a probability,
and therefore [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression][logistic regression]] is a better choice:
and therefore [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression][logistic regression]] is a better choice:
...
@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ true curve to lie somewhere in the grey zone.
...
@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ true curve to lie somewhere in the grey zone.
In this model, the assumption is $P[\textsf{Ill}] = \pi(\textsf{Age})$
In this model, the assumption is $P[\textsf{Ill}] = \pi(\textsf{Age})$
with $\displaystyle\pi(x)=\frac{e^{\alpha.x + \beta}}{1+e^{\alpha.x +
with $\displaystyle\pi(x)=\frac{e^{\alpha.x + \beta}}{1+e^{\alpha.x +
\beta}}$. This at first look strange formule has the nice property of
\beta}}$. This at first look strange formul
a
e has the nice property of
always yielding a value between zero and one, and to approach 0 and 1
always yielding a value between zero and one, and to approach 0 and 1
rapidly as the age tends to $-\infty$ or $+\infty$, but this is not
rapidly as the age tends to $-\infty$ or $+\infty$, but this is not
the only motivation for this choice.
the only motivation for this choice.
...
@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ In summary, when we have event-like data (binary) and we wish to
...
@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ In summary, when we have event-like data (binary) and we wish to
estimate the influence of a parameter on the probability of the event
estimate the influence of a parameter on the probability of the event
occurring (illness, failure, ...), the most natural and simple model
occurring (illness, failure, ...), the most natural and simple model
is logistic regression. Note that even if we restrain ourselves to a
is logistic regression. Note that even if we restrain ourselves to a
small part of the d
ta, e.g.
only patients less than 50 years old, it
small part of the d
ata, e.g.,
only patients less than 50 years old, it
is possible to get a reasonable estimate, even though, as is to be
is possible to get a reasonable estimate, even though, as is to be
expected, the uncertainty grows rapidly.
expected, the uncertainty grows rapidly.
...
...
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