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mooc-rr-ressources
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f214aeb4
Commit
f214aeb4
authored
Nov 26, 2018
by
Laurence Farhi
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ajout png + titres anglais
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exo5_python-en.org
module2/exo5/exo5_python-en.org
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-7
freq_temp_python.png
module2/exo5/freq_temp_python.png
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proba_estimate_python.png
module2/exo5/proba_estimate_python.png
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module2/exo5/exo5_python-en.org
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f214aeb4
#+TITLE: Analys
e du risque de défaillance des joints toriques de la navette Challenger
#+TITLE: Analys
is of the risk of failure of the O-rings on the Challenger shuttle
#+AUTHOR: Arnaud Legrand
#+AUTHOR: Arnaud Legrand
#+LANGUAGE: fr
#+LANGUAGE: fr
...
@@ -26,12 +26,12 @@ had been performed at this temperature.
...
@@ -26,12 +26,12 @@ had been performed at this temperature.
The following study therefore takes up some of the analyses carried out in this study
The following study therefore takes up some of the analyses carried out in this study
night and whose objective was to assess the potential influence of
night and whose objective was to assess the potential influence of
the temperature and pressure to which the seals are subjected
the temperature and pressure to which the seals are subjected
toric
s on their probability of malfunction. To do this, we
O-ring
s on their probability of malfunction. To do this, we
have the results of the experiments carried out by the engineers
have the results of the experiments carried out by the engineers
of NASA during the 6 years preceding the launch of the shuttle
of NASA during the 6 years preceding the launch of the shuttle
Challenger.
Challenger.
*
Chargement des données
*
Data loading
So we start by loading this data:
So we start by loading this data:
#+begin_src python :results value :session *python* :exports both
#+begin_src python :results value :session *python* :exports both
import numpy as np
import numpy as np
...
@@ -166,9 +166,9 @@ and the standard error of this estimator is 0.122, in other words we
...
@@ -166,9 +166,9 @@ and the standard error of this estimator is 0.122, in other words we
cannot distinguish any particular impact and we must take our
cannot distinguish any particular impact and we must take our
estimates with caution.
estimates with caution.
* Estimation of the probability of malfunctioning
toric seal
s
* Estimation of the probability of malfunctioning
O-ring
s
The expected temperature on take-off day is 31°F. Let's try to
The expected temperature on take-off day is 31°F. Let's try to
estimate the probability of malfunctioning
toric seal
s at
estimate the probability of malfunctioning
O-ring
s at
this temperature from the model we just built:
this temperature from the model we just built:
#+begin_src python :results output file :var matplot_lib_filename="proba_estimate_python.png" :exports both :session *python*
#+begin_src python :results output file :var matplot_lib_filename="proba_estimate_python.png" :exports both :session *python*
...
@@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ print(matplot_lib_filename)
...
@@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ print(matplot_lib_filename)
As expected from the initial data, the
As expected from the initial data, the
temperature has no significant impact on the probability of failure of the
temperature has no significant impact on the probability of failure of the
toric seal
s. It will be about 0.2, as in the tests
O-ring
s. It will be about 0.2, as in the tests
where we had a failure of at least one joint. Let's get back to the subject
where we had a failure of at least one joint. Let's get back to the subject
to the set of initial data to estimate the probability of
to the set of initial data to estimate the probability of
failure of a seal:
failure of a seal:
...
@@ -213,7 +213,7 @@ tomorrow as planned.
...
@@ -213,7 +213,7 @@ tomorrow as planned.
Only the next day, the Challenger shuttle will explode and take away
Only the next day, the Challenger shuttle will explode and take away
with her seven crew members. Public opinion is
with her seven crew members. Public opinion is
affected and in the subsequent investigation, the reliability of the
affected and in the subsequent investigation, the reliability of the
toric seal
s will be directly implicated. Beyond the problems
O-ring
s will be directly implicated. Beyond the problems
of internal communication at NASA, which have a lot to do with this
of internal communication at NASA, which have a lot to do with this
fiasco, the previous analysis includes (at least) a small
fiasco, the previous analysis includes (at least) a small
problem.... Can you find it? You are free to modify this
problem.... Can you find it? You are free to modify this
...
...
module2/exo5/freq_temp_python.png
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module2/exo5/proba_estimate_python.png
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